ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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emini Nasdaq. I am not convinced just yet that a new short is ready at the moment, but there are weakening signs here. I think a person could short right here and place a stop above the last hourly bar high of 1313.75. Probably would need to place it more than one tick away from the high, but you wouldn't lose terribly on this one and the could take 2 units, the next time the signal presents itself ie lower high and bar closing near the lower end . The negatives for this trade are that MACD has not resolved itself above the zero line like yesterday and also RSI has not touched the overbought line yet and failed. This short here would be lower probability I think, but could still work. In any event, if it doesn't, then a second signal will appear today or tomorrow--at least I would say that the probability is there. What is driving the trade today is the hourly bullish divergence on the 9:30 AM EST bar with respect to RSI along with a resolution of MACD to consolidate and turn up from below zero.
I think we will go higher.
Very well could. Upper end of range here has not resolved itself. Tenuous short would be the one put on here. Lower probability of success. One would start with a small amount if they were to put it on. I do believe that the probability for a sell off today or tomorrow is higher than a major move upwards. Doesn't mean we won't make that upwards move, but a small cap trader with a close stop wouldn't be hurt too badly by shorting.
It will be interesting to see if this second high holds. ES seldom tests a high more than twice in successive bars without either moving higher or breaking down. Same with lows. It seldoms tests the lows in successive bars more than twice without breaking out or reversing to the upside. We'll see as we are in the second hour of this new burst to the upside. As we move farther along in time, indicators will have more of a chance to resolve themselves and give us an indication if there will be a selloff. As indicated earlier, a short there would have been tenuous and would be advisable to start with a small amount. Odds are now increasing for a short with this recent 2 or 3 point move higher and the increased time in the move. A quick flip back to 12 minute charts show a nice class A MACD Histogram Bearish Divergence and a Class B RSI Bearish divergence.
buy 1 sell 2,
i have the impression that you don't have a clear tradeplan.
Have you ever written down all the rules that are used in the decision making?
Have you ever made stats about these rules? I mean: checking, if possible, 1000 or more trades by applying the rules. Writing down how many good /bad signals you had, how far did the open P/L go wrong, how much was the average profit, consecutive losses, maximum drawdown.......
I think it is essential to have reliable stats to define the final rules that have to be applied. And if your stats are good (i mean reliable) you should be able to forecast more or less the outcome for a group of 10 or more trades.
On top of that it gives you confidence to apply the rules strictly, even if at first sight things look not so good.
i have the impression that you don't have a clear tradeplan.
Have you ever written down all the rules that are used in the decision making?
Have you ever made stats about these rules? I mean: checking, if possible, 1000 or more trades by applying the rules. Writing down how many good /bad signals you had, how far did the open P/L go wrong, how much was the average profit, consecutive losses, maximum drawdown.......
I think it is essential to have reliable stats to define the final rules that have to be applied. And if your stats are good (i mean reliable) you should be able to forecast more or less the outcome for a group of 10 or more trades.
On top of that it gives you confidence to apply the rules strictly, even if at first sight things look not so good.
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