ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from mujoh:

Money management has only a ‘leverage’ effect to a strategy. Some comments here sound like a good money management can turn a losing strategy into a winning strategy. This is absolutely not true! But this is often a result of a wrong understanding of money management. I give you an example:

A trader has a system which contains 2 different strategies. Strategy A has a losing expectancy of -3 pts and strategy B has a winning expectancy of 2 pts.

1.) So if you trade both strategies with 1 contract each and strategy B has as many trades as strategy A then the system will lose 1pt (-3+2) overall.

2.) Now change the condition: Trade strategy A with 1 contract and strategy B with 2 contracts and the system will suddenly win 1 pt (-3 + 2x2) overall.

Some people blame this positive result to a good money management which is wrong. To improve the system you simply have to eliminate the losing strategy A because compensating losses with wins from strategy B has nothing to do with money management.

To B1S2:

Could you please explain what's your criteria to trade a bigger position? Is it dependent from your previous trade or what else?

I completely agree with what you said but is not what I was talking about.

As a reminder...we don't know the details about his strategies or strategy.

My comments were based upon one strategy only with the assumption he knows via statistics of his trading in combo with other variables about the market itself...

Knows when to reduce his position size and when to increase his position size.

Here's an example of what I'm talking about.

Lets pretend his stats shows his afternoon trading averages - 4 ES points.

Whereas his morning trading averages +3 ES points.

Results by the end of the day is a losing trading day on average about - 1 ES points.

Now...he has too choices:

1) Stop trading the afternoons

2) Either reduce his position size in the afternoon or increase his position size in the morning or both

The above is just a simple example.

Here's another example via one I personally use myself.

Lets say we know some market seasonal tendencies about our trading instrument.

Lets say we know that between Oct 28th - Nov 14th of each year since 1990 the S&P 500 will move up on average about +31-33 points.

I will increase my position size without violating any money management rules on particular Long signals between Oct 28th - Nov 14th and intentionally stay in the trade beyond my profit target when that target is reach because that target is far less than the +31-33 S&P 500 points.

(anybody with access to historical charts of the S&P 500 can easily verify the above is a fact about the average point gain in that particular duration of the trading year)

Whereas in comparison to other durations of the trading year...I reduce my position size.

Now...lets say I know a lot more other market seasonal tendencies besides the one I mentioned above.

Here's another example...lets pretend my stats show that my first trade of the trading day has a 72% chance of resulting as a loser in comparison to my remaining trades of the trading day that have a 32% chance of resulting as a loser...

Would reducing my position size in that first trade have any kind of impact on the performance of my system ???

I say yes.

Simply, you can change the performance level of your system via position size management...

It's very revelant to some traders whereas it may be completely unimportant to other traders simply because of different methods.

Don't get me wrong...I'm not saying that one trader has an advantage over another trader...

I'm saying this...

We don't know the in-depth details about Buy1Sell2 trade methodology and because of such we cannot tell him if his position size management that he's been showing so far in this thread is revelant or irrevelant.

That's all I'm saying.

Mark
(a.k.a. NihabaAshi) Japanese Candlestick term
 
Quote from NihabaAshi:

Here's an example of what I'm talking about.

Lets pretend his stats shows his afternoon trading averages - 4 ES points.

Whereas his morning trading averages +3 ES points.

Results by the end of the day is a losing trading day on average about - 1 ES points.

Now...he has too choices:

1) Stop trading the afternoons

2) Either reduce his position size in the afternoon or increase his position size in the morning or both

]


For me there is only one choice: Stop trading the afternoons.
It is like my example: Treat your morning trades as strategy A and your afternoon trades as strategy B). If your stats are telling you that your system loses 4 points in the afternoon why trade it at all? A 4 point loss will be a 4 point loss independent from your position size. Your ‘money management’ will only help you to lose less in the afternoon. Nothing more.

Quote from NihabaAshi:

Simply, you can change the performance level of your system via position size management...

]

I absolutely agree. But not all performance changes have to do with pure money management (see previous examples). I only increase my contract size when a trade has a better expectancy than another trade (assuming that all trades have a positive outcome).

Nevertheless I think we should no longer discuss these things in this thread as it leads off topic. But you can PM me if you wish further discussion.
:)
 
Quote from mujoh:

...Nevertheless I think we should no longer discuss these things in this thread as it leads off topic. But you can PM me if you wish further discussion.
:)

Agree and thanks.

Mark
(a.k.a. NihabaAshi) Japanese Candlestick term
 
Quote from volente_00:

I do look at 20,50 and 200 day ema on long term charts to scan for support and resistance

I also look for retracements.


Math question

1297.33

1268.42

= 28.91

28.91 x .5 = 14.445


1268.42 + 14.445 = 1282.875

Why am I posting this ?

What was the high for yesterday on the s&p ?

1282.74

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

==========
As much as i like moving averages [a rather witty invention] on derivatives & stocks;
probably more useful on stocks.:cool: Use them anyway.
 
very busy today with other things.
Only one trade and I am still holding that --just in the money .25 pt. I was just looking for a new short. Could have taken 5 pts but did not due to activity in other pursuits. Should have more time Monday
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

added to short ESM6 at 1296.50 now short 2 units

=============
Well you lived your nickname ;
short ''2''

Even though plenty of ES trends are up, actually figured by the very end of the day , there would have been more selling with that gap:cool:
 
Quote from murray t turtle:

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Well you lived your nickname ;
short ''2''

Even though plenty of ES trends are up, actually figured by the very end of the day , there would have been more selling with that gap:cool:

To me it is clear: never trade against the trend.

A week ago i said that the monthly and the weekly were long and the daily would turn long again in the next days. This happened and if things turn out bad we might go much higher. With a loss of about 7 to 8 points per contract it is difficult to take your loss now. But if things go worse the loss can become much bigger. To prevent these kind of situations i personally never take a loss bigger than 2 points. At least im sure to stay alive.

Discipline is essential in daytrading. Every time you break the discipline you will get slaughtered and in the end your account will be wiped out. Even with small positions; because a loss is always a loss.

But when you are lucky this still can become a profitable trade. But counting on luck in trading is not a good idea.
 
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