ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from romik:

Triple BLD on 10 min chart
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Classic triple divergence on 10 min chart attached.

Germans are not buying it though, I get a Sell signal in the DAX, but it is locked in a congestion area so far today, so this tells me that the Germans don't have the confidence of anticipating developments following yesterday's spike in oil. FTSE is up, but I don't find FTSE as reliable as DAX for directional analyses. Also the 4 hour ES chart looks topped to me. I will be looking to close this trade shortly at a loss, but holding on to the DAX short.

Position closed for -2.00
 

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Quote from romik:

. Question is how low I would be willing to allow it to get, before I close both of them & accept failure? Yesterday I was 'saved' by Apex's expectations of 1431 to come in as major support, it did & I am pretty happy about that it did. It depends on rest of the world now, if I see it tanking across the board I will be selling out of both positions not to allow profit in 1st position to become a loss by offsetting the 2nd position. I am not too keen on ES being still down after hours.

I have decided to hedge by shorting the DAX this morning.
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You make some valid points but the point is that the ES is still holding support and could easily advance to new highs from these levels. I understand nothing is 100% but why not wait for 1428 to be broken before abandoning a trade due to some news rumour?

The Dax is trying to put in a DB in its support zone and has even more support at 6840-6843.

Stick to your initial guns and why you put the trade on in the first place.
 
Quote from apex82:

You make some valid points but the point is that the ES is still holding support and could easily advance to new highs from these levels. I understand nothing is 100% but why not wait for 1428 to be broken before abandoning a trade due to some news rumour?

The Dax is trying to put in a DB in its support zone and has even more support at 6840-6843.

Stick to your initial guns and why you put the trade on in the first place.
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G'morning A,

1. 1428 was too wide for a stop on that trade;
2. Agreed on the rest, apart from the unconditional fact that conditions DO change & our signals accordingly. DAX short was not just a hedge, but was based on a valid entry signal that I use, which conflicted with ES, obviously I did the right thing today.
 
Quote from romik:

Now the smoke's cleared it turns out to be fishermen's ship seized in Iranian waters, in fact it is most likely fishermen-spies for the British MI5, they have been contracting fishermen since donkey's years to obtain information.
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Funny, I never read that in the press. You must read the Moscow Times :)
 
Quote from Brucelee:

Funny, I never read that in the press. You must read the Moscow Times :)
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BBC actually, I think all majors use fishermen to spy, that's why their vanishing rate is that high, not from drowning from natural causes created by nature, but from being made out & sunk or captured. And when the price of fish goes through the roof, it's because fishermen are scared, because of recent events. You watch, fish prices will rise now :)
 
Quote from romik:

G'morning A,

1. 1428 was too wide for a stop on that trade;
2. Agreed on the rest, apart from the unconditional fact that conditions DO change & our signals accordingly. DAX short was not just a hedge, but was based on a valid entry signal that I use, which conflicted with ES, obviously I did the right thing today.
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For sure... I am not trying to change your trading. I am just trying to point out some things from a different perspective. Having this big gap down is the ideal setup for a huge rally today.

The market has the structure to make a LARGE move(trend day) in one direction today.

Until 1427 is broken you have to go with the odds and probabilities that we are going to get a move to the upside. If and once that is broken then the bias would switch to the downside.
 
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