ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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It basically has to do with position sizing. My position is relatively small and so I am not getting hurt in any big way. We need a bit more of this down action I believe to take out the lows and then I will add on strength. If we don't get strength, then I'll get out at some point. I am looking at the low 1200's as decision time. My method looks bad on the face of it because I am not calling intraday trades etc., but it all has to do with my position size. If I was heavily using margin, I would need to be down on the 10 minute chart again and trading.

Quote from wareco:

I don't position trade, so I guess I don't understand the logic, but if you don't see a resumed extended upside in the near future, then why not cover your 1407 (ES H7) buy and look to re-enter the long at a lower level? I say this particularly in light of the spike off of the lows we've had. From a probability standpoint which was more likely to occur, a continued extension upward, or a retrace of the spike?
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:)
 
Quote from IanMacQuaide:

Yea, what he said.
And make it a bit more plain for us crazed newbies?

Seriously, Apex, you got a good thing going.

Thanks to you I now get up at 5:45am central time to catch the premkt moves and profit from them.

What's on tap for the ES tomorrow??
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Thanks for all the feedback guys, its much appreciated. That is good to hear you are getting up earlier. Just be careful on the globex with the er2, the es should be fine. I live on the west coast so I am always up at 4:30am PST preparing for the day. I am an avid believer that you must prepare before the market open so your able to anticipate and execute after the open.

I live, eat and breathe the markets. This thread gives me a place to convey some of my views of the market that 99% of the trading community is not looking at. I love trading and everything that goes along with it.

With that said... lets get on with tomorrow.

We are at a point where 2 probable scenarious could unfold.

1. We take out the previous lows and head lower into the next support zone.

2. We hold the lows made yesterday and continue higher to form a higher level C wave. Resulting in yesterdays down move to be the completion of a B wave.

Both are likely in probability. I would have to lean towards the first scenario due to the momentum continuation of this sell off. However, I do have some resistance zones that would confirm the probability of this C wave unfolding if they are taken out.

This is how I will be trading tomorrow. Hanging short until we negate some resistance zones that would turn my sentiment to bullish making the probabilities more likely that we retest last fridays highs and possibly move higher over the coming weeks.

I will post the R zones in the morning after doing my analysis and getting an idea of where the market is going to open up at.

Here is the upated version of the ES daily support zones.

1375-1376.50

1363-1365

and the zone where I am buying hand over fist...

1321-1330

Remember these are constructed off a daily chart so they could be a tick or 2 off due to not being able to align levels properly on such a large timeframe.

-Apex
 

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Hey Apex82, sorry for my ignorance here.

When trading is over today, would you be so kind as to briefly describe your analysis of support and resistance? Are you elliot wave? Your charts have a lot going on them - can you give a little primer on what you are doing on them?

I apologize in advance to all if this is covered elsewhere in the thread - 1500 pages is daunting, can someone point me to the approximate whereabouts in the thread if this has been covered?

Good trading to all today :)
 
subprime thing is overblown scare tactic. I'm stepping infront of the market today. Looking to get long if it stays above OR. And maintain longs for a few weeks.
 
Bullish Market Confirmations

1) USDJPY @ 116.60 touched into the 115 handle briefly. Must stay above 115 handle.

2) Oil must maintain a positive bias today.

3) Gold must maintain a positive bias today.

4) Bonds should sell off today.

The top 10% drive the american economy. The fat cats are sitting pretty.
 
Quote from Spectre2007:

subprime thing is overblown scare tactic. I'm stepping infront of the market today. Looking to get long if it stays above OR. And maintain longs for a few weeks.
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I must say, I agree with you. Very rare for me to take a bias based on pre-market info and thoughts, but this seems to one of those times. They (the media) are scapegoating subprime for every bad thing going on in the worldwide marketplace. Not saying the market is going to rocket to new highs or anything like that, but I do think there is a long side worth playing today. Wouldn't count on it lasting for weeks (or more than a day or two for that matter) at this point though...

Good luck.
 
Quote from Sponger:

Ok, we've seen the bounce after this kind of action in the last few weeks.

But today we had a lot of factors affecting the market simultaneously, and it was ALL ugly, so given today's endless Black Parade........

Who's calling for the next dead "this cat has nine of em" bounce tomorrow?

I'm in the bear camp myself, but I want to hear the technical reasons why we should bounce tomorrow if Asia etc. tumbles tonight. Are there any? Or is this just going to be a vicious cycle grinding lower from here on out that feeds on itself?

Viewpoints please.........
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S&P500%20weekly.png


S&P cash

"Find support and resistance levels. The best place to buy a market is near support levels. That support is usually a previous reaction low. The best place to sell a market is near resistance levels. Resistance is usually a previous peak. After a resistance peak has been broken, it will usually provide support on subsequent pullbacks. In other words, the old "high" becomes the new low. In the same way, when a support level has been broken, it will usually produce selling on subsequent rallies – the old "low" can become the new "high."" - J. Murphy
 
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