ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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never in my lifetime have the american public gone through so much in such a short period of time, in a matter of 3 years we have been smacked left and right by different tragedies.


Look at the long term historical trends. The equity markets are a barometer of sentiment. Things in emerging markets are vibrant and opening up all throughout Asia, Russia is enjoying capitalistic tendencies.

The worlds sentiment will springboard the american economy higher. That why I believe long term interest rates have seen their lows in 2003 similar to equities.

Here and now is one of the greatest opportunities of a lifetime in the american markets. How much do you think CSCO will be worth in 10 years? Or Apple? Or Google?, I remember in the early 90's when MSFT and other tech companies were just getting started.

But people still doubted the price movements back then too. The DOW as a whole is outperforming because thats where people feel the safest to test the waters. The SP500 and NASDAQ will outperform at later stages of this Bull run.
 
This reminds me so much of 94. We were slapped in the face with the mexican meltdown, then the Orange County collapse, and raising interest rates bottoming housing. Same shit you hear today, the consumer is done for. GM was almost bankrupt in 91 and it was a jobless recovery. The day after Thanksgiving Intel announced a defect in their chips. At this point everyone thought the recovery was done for. Bought Intel warrants (remember those?) the next Monday morning and held for the next three years. Check out the charts.

Human psyche tends to put way too much weight on recent events, referred as sunspots, look it up. That's what pushes the market out of equilibrium. As the sunspot fades the market returns to equilibrium.

Remember the events of the Asian contagion ten years ago. That was again a short term push out of equilibrium and look what it did to world markets. South Koreans were turning in their personal gold to prop up the currency. Look where they are today.

We are just reverting to the norm from the last 6 years here. 5 year average returns on most indexes are just beginning to compare to their historical averages and as Specta said the focus is returning to forward looking optimism. Always put current events in a historical perspective.
 
do u really think bullish bearish comments on this forum are market movers? helloooooo.....that is too much ...hilarious...if not for comments like that I would not bother reading .....:D :p :)
 
Looking for a higher level 5 wave move to unfold on the er2 this week. Looking for the rally to come to a halt in the 834-836 area. I will be getting short in this area with scalping entries accumulating a position for a longer term hold with minimal risk as possible. As with all tops, if it is going to be one it will most likely have a retest. I will be adding another unit at this point if it becomes available. I recommend taking profits if you are long from earlier at this area and wait to get in at lower prices. If your plan allows for some countertrend trades, this would be the one. However, I always reduce size when countertrend due to the probabilities.

First profit target will be about 20 pts depending on where and if it tops out. Second profit target will be in the 50 pts area. Third profit target could be 100pts+ The position will be mainly traded with a 2 point stop but with different type of entries some will be in the range of 5-8 ticks.

Best case scenario is if this zone is hit while ES is testing the 1469-1471 area.

Here is the zone.... I highly suggest marking this on your charts..
 

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Here is the bearish wedge resistance confirmed by many other cfs on higher timeframes. All coming into a nice tight zone at 1469-1471. I have been talking about getting up here for a month or two now.... Lets hope we get there this week. I will be looking to make a short trade on es as well. I will be waiting for more confirmation on the es vs the er2 though.

Here is the visual...
 

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Quote from Spectre2007:

Vol,

I think a lot of people are resistant still in equities, asking friends and such, not many people are investing like the old days. Most of it is from fund managers.

Lot of people are still scared of the equity market from the 2000 crash. I think thats why the US market has underperformed. The human psyche takes a bit of time to get over it, and only when the averages and stocks move up.

The bellweathers are still sub 50 dollars. If you look at what the american psyche has weathered.

1) March 2000 Crash
2) 911
3) War/Death of our Sons and Daughters
4) Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld
5) Oil at the Pump

Its almost as if the american psyche has post traumatic disorder as a whole. And just recently we are showing signs of coming out of it. And the stock market is inching forward with that psyche.

Basically the hedgies are frontrunning the american psyche before it becomes full blown optimism again. Thats the core of what is at work here.

Chris
More...


You have some good points but why is retail margin debt back at an all time high ? The last time people borrowed this much to trade signalled the top of the last bull. This time is different right ?


http://www.thestreet.com/markets/marketfeatures/901067.html


http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/01/margin_debt_up_.html
 
i don't think anybody has said it, so i'll say it...

thanks k-rock for bringing us the you tube dude.
thanks jj for bringing us the simple 123 thingy.

a couple more straws on the everbuilding haystack of opinion... although i know some could choose to be critical of either or both, must admit it's nice to have additional perspectives....:)
 
and even if you don't like carboni, he may be having an effect on the market. interesting that the market is turning at his proclaimed buy point after a nice drop from 0830est.
 
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