ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[porgie]

mech.........i agree ..........the whipsaw occurs on low volume........it is tradable and easier than most of the other market conditions.........there is whipsaw/choppy day.........trend day for long run most/all of day and range day with several longer runs........that is all u can have but the exception is you can have all 3 in one fine day...........trying to guess what comes on next bar much less all day is not the answer ...........test it tothe point of very high probability and then you are not guessing........you are letting the system tell you this is high probability.........the next guy might guess because he has not proven as u have......get the system to tell you......successful emini discretionary trading is almost non existent. and then it is based on testing and testing and more testing so how is it not mec hanical? how is it not repetitive......redundant? same picture same results .........over and over.........it is not complicated......we are complicated emotionally because we "know" too much........we t hink the more w e learn the better...........dead wrong......a loser's trap

 

[porgie]

guessing is with no edge........trading with the edge is advantage trader......greater edge greater probability..........

 

[murray t turtle]

Quote from spike500:

Don't thrust Yahoo for correct data. I have completely different data, don't know anymore where i got it, but for years now i get my data from Esignal. Much more accurate than Yahoo.


I trade for years with a 2 points stop. I seldom got stopped out, so apparently i don't have problems with higher volatility. High volatility mostly creates problems if you are trading AGAINST the trend. If you trade WITH the trend you will see that the big moves go in the direction of the trend.

Maybe know you will understand why trading WIth the trend is so important.

============
Last sentence is worth repeating;
market likes to repeat that also.

 

[porgie]

by the way, there is no such thing as bar noise........it is all painted by price.........

 

[Buy1Sell2]

No trades just yet. I will wait until indicators get a little more sampling in them after the off day Friday. May wait until tomorrow--we'll see. In the meantime, I fully expect bulls to attempt 1300. We'll see if they can hold it there.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Surely bulls can do more than 1298.25 can't they?? If not, WOW

 

[romik]

Quote from mechtrader41:

mmmmmhh, By looking this thread i find this here....

...it depends on the setup

many of my setups are vigorously backtested, so i have no problem risking (for example) 21 pts to get a 78% chance of winning 14 pts

now, that is an unacceptable risk/reward ratio by some reckonings, but ... do the math

risk/reward only makes sense if computed in regards to the probability of that positive outcome
...

I asked you to look up candletrader's post, I don't know about whister's credibility. I will be posting a chart soon.

 

[romik]

OK, as I don't know about other people's strategy I will only comment on the following chart in relation to my system.

This is a 15 minute chart of ESM6. 9:30am WRB has a High of 1298.00 and a low of 1294.50 with volume 53.233 (which we can assume to be relatively high on 15 min chart ES). The bar does not fit MY criteria to trade it, THOUGH, is not a bad example.

What do you see happening after the WRB? There are a lot of signals both in charts and T&S, the ability to trade this short term opportunity depends on EXPERIENCE and ABILITY.

Romik.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

The system indicated a short at the end of the 10.18 bar(10:30) at 1297.75--lower second RSI peak which also constituted bearish divergence.

 

[romik]

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

The system indicated a short at the end of the 10.18 bar at 1297.75--lower second RSI peak which also constituted bearish divergence.

Nice one

EDIT: Where do you see support? I would take profits @ 1294.50 level