ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from OldTrader:

Locals don't wait for volume to dry up. In fact, they trade off the paper that enters the pit. When volume dries up chances are high they go have their smoke break. By the way, they're not waiting for market profile set-ups, etc etc. They are scalpers trading off the paper entering the pit.

Don't try to take a screen traders ideas and tools and apply them to locals. It will take you down the wrong path every time.

OldTrader
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You are totally right OldTrader. Locals mainly scalp off paper and they probably don't even care about MP. Locals are the ones you hear trading back and forth during the dull drums and the ones scalping off paper when paper comes in. I don't trade listening to the squak box, I tried it out and it didn't fit my style, however, now that I think of it, it would be interesting to hear who is putting on opposing postions during the 10:30am time period.

So my2cents, my revised answer is:

BREAK OUT

Instituitions are finishing up trading and the overseas markets are getting ready to close, so volume is declining. However if a significant S/R area is broken during this time period while institutions (volume) are in play, we have a higher chance of a trending day. If no breakout occurs during this time period, then we may see a range day.(No breakout= range day)

So when should we be aware of a possible breakout day? when economic #'s come out and during big news releases.
We can confirm the breakout if all indices are participating making new highs/lows.
 
Quote from romik:

reversed, long 1420.50 increased bet size
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reversed, short 1419.50 increased bet size

EDIT: It was a late entry as I was away, proper entry should have been 1420.75
 
Quote from my2cents:

A simple question and kudos for the day to whomever can correctly answer the following:

What makes 10:30 such a reliable reversal time?

(End of first hour of trading or cigarette/coffee break does not count)
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Because amateurs open the market and pros close it.
 
Good stuff here.

What started as a back-and-forth chit chat about the validity (or invalidity) of vol's patented 10:30am reversals (first I ever heard of it, at least), has turned into an interesting discussion about the why's and wherefores of the reversal phenomena.

After looking at my charts all day (as per usual) I've come to my own realizations on the subject.

Here, let me pose it as a question:

Where's the least amount of risk and the greatest reward in a trade?

Yep, you guessed it.

Best Regards,

Jimmy Jam
 
Quote from romik:

reversed, short 1419.50 increased bet size

EDIT: It was a late entry as I was away, proper entry should have been 1420.75
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Position closed 1412.75

1. $100 p/point -1.75 (175.00)
2. $125 p/point -1.25 (156.25)
3. $150 p/point - 1.00 (150)
4. $175 p/point +6.75 1,181.25

Net: $700.00
 
Quote from romik:

Position closed 1412.75

1. $100 p/point -1.75 (175.00)
2. $125 p/point -1.25 (156.25)
3. $150 p/point - 1.00 (150)
4. $175 p/point +6.75 1,181.25

Net: $700.00
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Excellent trading! If I may ask how you determined the increased size for each subsequent trade? In your example you seem to have started with 2 contracts and then increased size by one.

If this is the case I get on the second trade 2.5 and on the fourth trade 3.5 contracts? What am I calculating wrong here?

I also noticed on prior posts of B1S2 that he increases his size not by a constant amount but by some geometric progression. Is there some mathematical reasoning behind this?

Keep up your great trading results and thanks for your answers.

paul
 
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