ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from trendy:

That's all well and good, but unless you thought today was going to be a big move day, I see no logic in throwing away a 6 point gain. Bank the profit, wait for the market to rebound and re-initiate the short. Anything else is inferior trading.

In your opinion, this is inferior. To others that are looking to take more out of bigger moves, that is foolish.

That's what great about trading... your opinion is yours and mine is mine. Whatever works for you, works for you and vice versa.

Good trading buy1!
 
No one knows which days will be big move days and so we stay in trades in order to find those moves. Over the long haul my larger wins will be a better way to go.
 
Quote from brownsfan019:

In your opinion, this is inferior. To others that are looking to take more out of bigger moves, that is foolish.

No, actually, your being foolish. Had B1S2 covered around 1423, he would have had 5+ points of locked in profit. Had he then waited for the market to rebound, and re-initiated his short in the 1428 area where he first started his short, he would be much further ahead profit wise than he is now.

It's only if he felt the market was going to continue to do nothing but further sell off, would not covering make any sense.

Get it?
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

No one knows which days will be big move days and so we stay in trades in order to find those moves. Over the long haul my larger wins will be a better way to go.

Of course there is no 100% way of knowing but there are methods that can you get up in the 70% range.
 
The problem with locking in the 5 or 6 point profit is that the system I designed then dictates that I go back to initial position size and so I will make fewer points on the continuation of the move down. I am in the business to shoot big game, not quail. :)
 
Quote from trendy:

No, actually, your being foolish. Had B1S2 covered around 1423, he would have had 5+ points of locked in profit. Had he then waited for the market to rebound, and re-initiated his short in the 1428 area where he first started his short, he would be much further ahead profit wise than he is now.

It's only if he felt the market was going to continue to do nothing but further sell off, would not covering make any sense.

Get it?

OK, so you have ONE example. Great. Let me go find one where staying in the longer trend all day makes a boat load of money.

You are missing the point - there are many, many ways to trade. To call someone 'foolish' is just ignorant. Get it?
 
Quote from trendy:

No, actually, your being foolish. Had B1S2 covered around 1423, he would have had 5+ points of locked in profit. Had he then waited for the market to rebound, and re-initiated his short in the 1428 area where he first started his short, he would be much further ahead profit wise than he is now.

It's only if he felt the market was going to continue to do nothing but further sell off, would not covering make any sense.

Get it?

I agree with you.

B1S2 could do his strategy and also add your suggestion.

The major priority is to STAY in the market...... (this could mean for ANY segment of profit as well).

A related priority is to BE on the right side of the market. B1S2 forgoes this for some periods of time (between where price is and his current stop (which is a reversal as well))

So it appears that being on the right side of the market is not a B1S2 priority at all times and that it is not as important as the priority of looking for the big hits (home runs) even though, at the moment, movement is away from the potential big hit.

The strategy keeps B1S2 in the market at all times and the direction of the market is determined intiially by his choice of direction and secondarily by his reversal as a consequence of being stopped out by subsequent price going against his position.

A potential hit that fails becomes a new potential hit in the other direction.

In between is no man's land and its traverses are limited small losses compared to the large hits (home runs).

If he does as you suggest (turn the no man's land losses into profits), then during the time of these profit accumulations he is sacrificing the potential he strives for of the hit starting by a turn for the better and going for the moon from any new point starting in no man's land.

This isn't a dilemma, it is just two different takes on making money in no man's land.

The area of no man's land (between the entry and the stop) is what is on the table as a place for refinement.

We can recall AMT's solution to this opportunity. Power girl handles this as well.

Both are "efficiency" compromises.

They did go for the big hits and they also traded no man's land to make money there. More contracts for the big hit strategy and few contracts to make money while in no man's land.

One account handles it.

If a person moves from the B1S2 and Trendy strategies to the AMT and powergirl level, the PF goes up and a different reasoning process prevails.

What is the tradeoff for changing how reasoning is done? And how could the consequences of changing be viewed in order to come to compromise?

Successful risk avoidance is shown by the PF increase but what is it that appears in the trading process that affords the opportunity to "see" the market circumstance.

I ask Pring the same Q in a different form at the Vegas Expo. He demurred.

for me the no man's land of B1S2 is a skilled assignment of a range of price at a given time where it's coclusion is left in the hands of market price action. I feel that being able to skillfully assert the price range is an entitlement that could be put in the trader's hands as trendy postulates.

AMT and powergirl took the entitlement and made some money with it and preserved the home run potential concurrently.

The trader tool that makes the entitlement 100% effective instead of just increasing the PF is the fact that tends overlap. The two that overlap are the home run trends envisioned.

When the first home run is getting cancelled it is by the overlap of the second home run coming into being.

Looking for home runs means a person can see the home run otential. This is an entitlement too. He also assigns the "back fire" value to the hme run in the form of a reversal stop to take on (begin) the next home run.

Here it can be seen that the first home run potential ends andnthe second home run potential begins a time still unrecognized by person skillful enough to see and trade on other things.

So there is a need to add to the quiver, a tool set that reveals more timing precision. It is actually better becase of the overlap.

The new home run potential well over laps the old home run potential ending.

This is the statement that optimises the PF of the trading strategy.

Somewhere in the no man's zone there is a TIME that optimizes making money once there is a determination (use a tool or two) that there is an overlap.

Once you know the only conditions for home runs, then you know how to tool up for the coincidence of one failing in potential and another beginning to punch the ball out of the park.

Go for it.
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Holding this short over the holiday weekend. Merry Christmas to all. :)

The Stock Trader’s Almanac notes that the “Santa Claus rally,” which encompasses the last five trading days of the year and the first two in January, has been good for an average gain of 1.5% since 1950, and 1.6% since 1969.
 
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