ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from Pekelo:

Well, it almost worked, almost! We got 5 points close to the full gapclose, but that 885-86 line proved to be too strong support.
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Or that we could possibly open gap down below 885, no? How does that possibility enter into your game plan? BTW there's a name for that: Island Reversal.
 
Quote from Pekelo:

We could dip down tomorrow out of this range to fill the gap and touch the SMA then rally back and cross the whole range continuing the rally. That's what I would do if I were the market. :)
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This is what I'm leaning towards as well. The 870-880 ES zone still has yet to be tested. If we go down to test this area tomorrow morning, watch for a sharp reversal... if you miss it then jump in on a deep retrace (50-80%) with stop under the low and hold for much higher. High probability trade with sick R/R.
 
Quote from Pekelo:

Well, it almost worked, almost! We got 5 points close to the full gapclose, but that 885-86 line proved to be too strong support.

What we had today was a failed ADU with a snapback in the last hour. Strictly speaking a failed ADU is not an all day upper, because it melts down around 2 pm, but because in the first half it still follows the ADU timeline, so I call it a failed ADU.

As I mentioned earlier, the morning was not a classic because there was a gapclose attempt, and I thought for a while we might get a delayed ADU. But once the morning bottom was at 10:50 (normal 11 ish time) I figured it isn't delayed. Sure enough we had the very shortable midday top between the scheduled 12-12:30 frame, and the midday low came only 5 minutes earlier than the usual 1-2 pm frame, giving a decent bounce.

The existence of 2 gaps below just proved to be too inviting thus the market melted down first closing today's gap and later attempting to close the gap at 880. After 885 held, we rallied back and the SPX closed up 10.5 points, so I wouldn't call it sideways...

So where are we now? We have been in this 885-920 range for 3 days now. On the NDX daily chart we have 2 dojis, that means consolidation and continuation, on the SPX we have 2 inside days in a row, that means reversal. We have to close below the SMA (275ish) to have a confirmed reversal..

One way to solve this contradiction would be a Wyckoff thrust. We could dip down tomorrow out of this range to fill the gap and touch the SMA then rally back and cross the whole range continuing the rally. That's what I would do if I were the market. :)
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Please explain --- 275ish?

We have to close below the SMA (275ish) to have a confirmed reversal


ME: I think it tries to breakout of 920 and fails -- market acts as if very tired and scared to go higher after brutal experiences in similar attempts
 
I have been reviewing a 5 minute chart of the S&P 500 cash.

Can someone out there please look at cash S&P 5min on Friday Dec 5 and tell me whether you see a gap near 2:40 or 2:45 that afternoon. in the 853-851 area

thank you
 
Quote from vertigo3:

Rollover Day is on Thursday, 11 December 2008.

To be better prepared for Rollover Day read this article:
http://www.mypivots.com/articles/articles.aspx?artnum=10

Page 5 of that article has a chart showing how volume switches from the expiring contract to the new contract
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In both Multicharts and TOS, the MArch ES and NQ contracts are almost the same as the DEC 2008 ES and NQ contracts -- NO PREMIUM! even negative premium!
THis is bearish....

Seems to me the issue now is not whether to short or not, but
when to short, at what levels?

898 & 909 are two probable levels...
 
No premium is a function of the interest rate used in the fairvalue formula. For programs that use a 3 month t-bill as the cost of borrowing funds to buy the indexes, well, that rate is virutally zero. so premium to the March 09 contract is zero, too. (Might be bearish, too, but more likely a function of incredibly -zero- 3 month rates.

Has anyone seen a gap in the intraday chart from Friday afternoon (as described above)
 
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