ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
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sh 88 from yesterday,900 from last nite, adding 900 here,gotta go out,906 stop and hope for no fill and afternoon selloff, i think they were pumpimg this up to get short and they cant take it any higher or they are short enough ,everyone has been squeezed out ,still looking foe 780,736,726, may have to wait til fri #s
if we break that 904.50, 910 1st target and up to 927 are upside targets. Looks like they can do it at this point.
Q Ratio Signals Horrific Market Bottom, CLSA Says (Update2)
By Patrick Rial
Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) -- A global stock slump may have further to go,
> according to Tobins Q ratio, which compares the market value of
> companies to the cost of their constituent parts, CLSA Ltd. strategist
> Russell Napier said.
>
> The ratio, developed in 1969 by Nobel Prize-winning economist James
> Tobin, shows the Standard & Poors 500 Index is still too expensive
> relative to the cost of replacing assets, said Napier. While the 39
> percent drop in the index this year pushed equity prices below
> replacement cost, history suggests the ratio must sink further as
> deflation sets in, he said. The S&P may plunge another 55 percent to 400
> by 2014, > Bear-Market Scholar
>
> Napier, who teaches at Edinburgh Business School and advised clients to
> buy oil in 2002 before it tripled, based his S&P 500 forecast on the Q
> ratio for U.S. equities as well as the 10-year cyclically adjusted
> price-to-earnings ratio, another measure of long-term value.
>
> Before the trough in 2014, investors are likely to see a so- called bear
> market rally for the next two years as central bank actions delay the
> onset of deflation, Napier said.
>
> In the long run, stocks will become even cheaper, said Brian
> Shepardson, who helps manage $1.9 billion at Xenia, Ohio- based James
> Investment Research. The firms James Balanced Golden Rainbow Fund beat
> 98 percent of similar funds this year. There?s a likelihood of some
> type of rally and further pullback surpassing the lows weve already
> set.
>
> The Q ratio on U.S. equities has dropped to 0.7 from a peak of 2.9 in
> 1999, and reaching 0.3 has always signaled the end of a bear market,
> said Napier, 44, the author of Anatomy of the Bear, a study of how
> business cycles change course. The Q ratio for U.S. equities has
> fluctuated between 0.3 and 3 in the past 130 years.
>
> When the gauge is more than one, it indicates the market is overvaluing
> company assets, while a Q ratio of less than one signifies shares are
> undervalued because it is cheaper to buy companies than to build them
> from the ground up.
>
> Previous Bottoms
>
> At the end of the four largest U.S. bear markets in 1921, 1932, 1949 and
> 1982, the Q ratio fell to 0.3 or lower, and history is likely to repeat,
> said Napier. From the 1982 trough, the S&P 500 grew more than 14-fold to
> the middle of 2000, when Napier says the last bull market ended.
>
> Napier started his career in 1989 as a fund manager for the Scottish
> firm Baillie Gifford & Co. As CLSAs Asian strategist he called the
> bottom of Asian equity markets in mid-1998. This year, he predicted
> gains in Japanese stocks prior to a 38 percent decline
>
> Awaiting Signals
>
> For those who are worried about losing much of their investment almost
> overnight, very clearly youd want to wait for those signals to give a
> much stronger case, he said. The bear market will have a painful
> resolution, its just a question of how painful, over what period of
> time and for what parties.
>
> Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernankes indication that he will use
> quantitative easing to prevent deflation points to a stock market
> rally that may last for the next two years, Napier said. With
> quantitative easing, a tool pioneered by the Bank of Japan, central
> banks can stimulate inflation by printing money and flooding the market
> with cash in order to encourage consumers to spend.
>
> The governments efforts will eventually fail as ballooning government
> debt devalues the dollar, causes investors to flee U.S. assets and takes
> the S&P 500 to its eventual bottom in 2014, Napier said.
>
> Bear markets always end for exactly the same reason, and that is the
> market begins to price in deflation, he said. Equities will be
> incredibly cheap.
By Patrick Rial
Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) -- A global stock slump may have further to go,
> according to Tobins Q ratio, which compares the market value of
> companies to the cost of their constituent parts, CLSA Ltd. strategist
> Russell Napier said.
>
> The ratio, developed in 1969 by Nobel Prize-winning economist James
> Tobin, shows the Standard & Poors 500 Index is still too expensive
> relative to the cost of replacing assets, said Napier. While the 39
> percent drop in the index this year pushed equity prices below
> replacement cost, history suggests the ratio must sink further as
> deflation sets in, he said. The S&P may plunge another 55 percent to 400
> by 2014, > Bear-Market Scholar
>
> Napier, who teaches at Edinburgh Business School and advised clients to
> buy oil in 2002 before it tripled, based his S&P 500 forecast on the Q
> ratio for U.S. equities as well as the 10-year cyclically adjusted
> price-to-earnings ratio, another measure of long-term value.
>
> Before the trough in 2014, investors are likely to see a so- called bear
> market rally for the next two years as central bank actions delay the
> onset of deflation, Napier said.
>
> In the long run, stocks will become even cheaper, said Brian
> Shepardson, who helps manage $1.9 billion at Xenia, Ohio- based James
> Investment Research. The firms James Balanced Golden Rainbow Fund beat
> 98 percent of similar funds this year. There?s a likelihood of some
> type of rally and further pullback surpassing the lows weve already
> set.
>
> The Q ratio on U.S. equities has dropped to 0.7 from a peak of 2.9 in
> 1999, and reaching 0.3 has always signaled the end of a bear market,
> said Napier, 44, the author of Anatomy of the Bear, a study of how
> business cycles change course. The Q ratio for U.S. equities has
> fluctuated between 0.3 and 3 in the past 130 years.
>
> When the gauge is more than one, it indicates the market is overvaluing
> company assets, while a Q ratio of less than one signifies shares are
> undervalued because it is cheaper to buy companies than to build them
> from the ground up.
>
> Previous Bottoms
>
> At the end of the four largest U.S. bear markets in 1921, 1932, 1949 and
> 1982, the Q ratio fell to 0.3 or lower, and history is likely to repeat,
> said Napier. From the 1982 trough, the S&P 500 grew more than 14-fold to
> the middle of 2000, when Napier says the last bull market ended.
>
> Napier started his career in 1989 as a fund manager for the Scottish
> firm Baillie Gifford & Co. As CLSAs Asian strategist he called the
> bottom of Asian equity markets in mid-1998. This year, he predicted
> gains in Japanese stocks prior to a 38 percent decline
>
> Awaiting Signals
>
> For those who are worried about losing much of their investment almost
> overnight, very clearly youd want to wait for those signals to give a
> much stronger case, he said. The bear market will have a painful
> resolution, its just a question of how painful, over what period of
> time and for what parties.
>
> Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernankes indication that he will use
> quantitative easing to prevent deflation points to a stock market
> rally that may last for the next two years, Napier said. With
> quantitative easing, a tool pioneered by the Bank of Japan, central
> banks can stimulate inflation by printing money and flooding the market
> with cash in order to encourage consumers to spend.
>
> The governments efforts will eventually fail as ballooning government
> debt devalues the dollar, causes investors to flee U.S. assets and takes
> the S&P 500 to its eventual bottom in 2014, Napier said.
>
> Bear markets always end for exactly the same reason, and that is the
> market begins to price in deflation, he said. Equities will be
> incredibly cheap.
long 99.75, stop below 95, target 910+
Quote from saliva:
Vol, r u referring to the daily or the intraday?
Regardless, they both look pretty retarded.
Was on daily but failed. I still say 880 today.
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