you really beat around the bush on that one vol, thanks, i will take your word on dec exp, i shorted at 77,82 88, covered 92, shorted 96,,got smoked, you really do know those exp better than any one i met, sos from tos used to come into oex at 2:45 and he was good at it just as good if not better ,but your doing it from home, my hat's offQuote from volente_00:
Was that close enough for you Ammo ?
ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
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jahajee and lc, what do you think of the notion that when the volatility dries up,then we have a bottom?Quote from Lawrence Chan:
2 very different answers at the same time.
First one is the technical one, based on the price level of the currencies only, then the decoupling will happen pretty soon as something like USD/JPY in theory cannot go to 1 dollar to 1 yen. The problem is that such "in principle" thinking cannot give us any clue where or when the decoupling may happen.
Second one is the fundamental one, which I think the guy got it wrong. Money is a means for the exchange of resources. Real resources I may add. But, the current money system created virtual wealth (or multiplying effect
The old money (those who has real hard assets) in Europe are actually buying US based assets (including stocks) as the mkt dives. That's why GBP and EUR are under pressure, as no real money exchanged hand, just a very small percent of the hard assets are used as collateral.
I mentioned early last year that old money from Europe is moving out of the US stock market and that will lead to further collapse of the stock market no matter how hard we bounce or even making a new high.
They are back buying the US equities slowly thus the down trend in GBP and EUR. The CFTC report is just on those speculators riding their coattail.
Thus we can tell if decoupling happens in the near future, we are getting the true bottom of the US equities
Think of wave's posts, add the concept of SS's strong hands, and then realize that these old monies are 100 times even more powerful, you can then get the picture.
Here is an example.
10 mil account. 100 mil hard asset. What to do?
1. 10 mil margin long USD 50 mil.
2. Take that 50 mil long US equities, bonds and index products. Just dividend, interest, carry interest, and selling covered calls (on bonds only) alone pay for the holding of the position at 20% plus return a year. Any appreciation on the instruments are bonus. *** risk management the number one priority on all old monies ***
3. For those extra careful clients, a swap is created on the net position in case something goes wrong. That may reduces the return by 1 to 2%.
All I Banks do that for their "super clients". I wonder if they have new tricks now?
Volatility usually induces more volatility. It takes a long time for that to go back to a level, like early 2007.
If low volatility means in general public no longer wants to even talk about stocks, then I guess that a longer term bottom is made
Take the pa from the 13th and 14th and turn it on it's ass and looks exactly like the 20th and 21st, including the overnight drifts. I honestly do not see geometric or other shapes in pa (wedges, ledges, hs, triangles, butttocks or boobies, etc), but those are two striking inverted patterns. Interesting time based distribution of volume the last 2 days as well. The point of it all being? I do not know, but could be a larger part of the crispy poop formation at hand, will need to sample some larger historical data to see.
I was not trying to beat around the bush, next time I will just say the number instead of posting the strike for it.
ammo don't beat yourself up, nothing is a gimme (see last month). This works a high % of the time, but doesn't when it doesn't. 900 was really the original target, the bulk of the open interest on 800 puts didn't come in until expiration week.
Quote from Lawrence Chan:
Volatility usually induces more volatility. It takes a long time for that to go back to a level, like early 2007.
If low volatility means in general public no longer wants to even talk about stocks, then I guess that a longer term bottom is made
When VIX stays below 40 for a few days then then bottom would have been made. Some use a 5-day RSI of the VIX to determine when the VIX is "overbought" and "oversold"; Others use the hourly VIX.
For VIX to go down, the markets must go up... VIX being inverse to market direction. Thus, by the time VIX declines to neutral range - about 25 to 25 - the bottom would have been in place for some time.
In intraday trading, the intraday VIX is useful - I have 1m TICK and VIX charts, monitoring them to indentify possible intraday turning points when TICK goes below - 1000 or above 1000 and VIX spikes down or up.
The sustained elevated VIX and volatilities we have seen during the past three months are unusual and first time ever witnesed by traders. Even 1987 never produced such high VIX values for so long a period.
There will be no bottom unless VIX gets below 50, and then declines sharply to 25 or 30. But, as I pointed out above, by that time the SPX would have rallied 200 points or more.
VIX dropped abot 10% on Friday, from 80 to 72. Still solidly located in bear zone above 50 but it is likely to decline to about 50 to 60 after 2 or 3 days then back up again.
Yeah, I think there will be a mini bear market rally to 850 or possibly 900, then more declines as tax-loss selling and hedge fund redemptions continue into December. Also, there may be Q4 earnings warnings in mid to late December.
The put interest was there at 80 on spy long before oe week. Actual max pain was 97 if you believe in that nonsense.
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