ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Well, I would like to make a mission statement, so nobody missunderstands my goals:

I want to demonstrate that the markets are not random and it is possible to predict them with a high success ratio. Not for everyone and not all the time. Repetitious patterns emerge regularly and one can take advantage of them. The same patterns and rules work across different markets and different timeframes.

I also believe in the Keep It Simple Stupid (KISS) principle thus less charts, ideas, monitors one uses, the better. There is no need for overcomplicating things.

An example: :)

Quote from Pekelo on 11/14:

it really looks like we had a dragon failure on the daily chart too.
If so, height is 160, failure at 913 or so, that would take us down to 913-160= 750ish...

Probably takes 2-3 days to get there....

OK, it is 4 days today but we just had a 774 LOD....
 
In downturns, bullish divergences are still tradeable, but in general they are only good for bounces. Of course, one of them will always turn out to be the real thing, but which one? --It's better to trade with the trend and bypass the bottom fishing until the trend reverse. Does it lag? Certainly, but who cares?
 

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Quote from Pekelo:

the markets are not random and it is possible to predict them with a high success ratio. The same patterns and rules work across different markets and different timeframes.

I also believe in the Keep It Simple Stupid (KISS) principle. There is no need for overcomplicating things.

This is exactly right.:)
 
submitted for your amusement:

Evening of Thursday, December 5, 1996. Greenspan delivered his famous "irrational exuburence" speech.

the great time machine marches backwards

The price range that week for the S&P 500 cash was

761.75 High
726.89 Low
 
Quote from volente_00:

SO WHICH IS IT COUNTERTREND OR NOT ?

You have shown multiple examples of both in the journal.

The trades on page one were countertrend of course.
 
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