ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from Pekelo:

It was a delayed SDD because we started out with a doubletop thus the pattern was behind schedule by 30-40 minutes.
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It was actually a bit more, like 50+ mins. The morning 2nd doubletop occured just before 10:20 am.
The first mini breakdown that rallied back 18 pts wasn't the real one, although it had new LOD, it didn't really left the range. The real meltdown started after another doubletop, the 2nd one at 3:10 (that is 2:20 pm adjusted for the delay).
So the breakdown rule had to be adjusted too, once it broke below the previous low of 819 (ES), one had to stay short until the close at least (since 3:30 would be 4:20, adjusted)...

Here I did a little trick and cut off the first 45 mins, and we have a perfect SDD:

6ptfgj.png
 
Quote from volente_00:

High probability you get your 902 this week, only problem is 808 -810 could be seen before it happens.
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:eek:

Only the T day crew can get you back to 900 now.
 
90-something points, that's 45 points a day. If we're going up I'm betting a 75pt up day with a 15pt on Friday.

Missed that second top this morning (afk), and just when I was all "Damn, that 865 is a sexy spot to go short". Fed meeting kept my fingers away from the trigger, so a whole lot of nothing but "whoa" and "damn!".
 
Quote from Lawrence Chan:

The selling into the close is too orderly - no sliding all the way to 790 area.

So weak hands long selling while strong hands take over, fully expecting and prepared for a drop to 750 area.

BUT, what if, ES fall beyond what they think?
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Strong hands have the ability to HOLD onto something because they are not overleveraged, because they are patient and disciplined, because they expected the unexpected, and because they know their risk tolerance in advance. If they are wrong, they can move on to the next trade.

Strong hands know their own weaknesses and are able to manage them well enough to trade well.

Weak hands don't. They cannot hold on, and they have nothing on which to hold. That's what makes them weak hands.

Weak hands think they are strong. Overconfident, they don't know how weak they are.

The markets help them find out.
 
Quote from smilingsynic:

Strong hands have the ability to HOLD onto something because they are not overleveraged, because they are patient and disciplined, because they expected the unexpected, and because they know their risk tolerance in advance. If they are wrong, they can move on to the next trade.

Strong hands know their own weaknesses and are able to manage them well enough to trade well.

Weak hands don't. They cannot hold on, and they have nothing on which to hold. That's what makes them weak hands.

Weak hands think they are strong. Overconfident, they don't know how weak they are.

The markets help them find out.
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Good points, Prof s.

Strong hands be humble and learn, week hands be bold and brag.
There are old traders, and there are bold traders, but there are no old, bold traders ...
 
Current reaction lows (Monthly charts):

S&P500 - 768.63 - (Currently 806.58) 4.7% above RL
DJ30 - 7,181.47 - (Currently 7,997.28) 10.2% above RL
NAS COMPOSITE - 1,108.49 (Currently 1,386.42) 20% above RL

The following is just for a bit of fun, but who knows - (4.7+10.2+20)/3=11.63% that would put:

S&P500 @ 712.77
DJ30 @ 7,067.20
NAS COMPOSITE @ 1,225.18

:)

N.B. Wave's analyses on GOOG travelling to $250 means it has to shave off another 10.77% of yesterday's closing price of $280.18, which is within 0.86 of 11.63% indexes average :):):)
 
Quote from HooLee:

Good points, Prof s.

Strong hands be humble and learn, week hands be bold and brag.
There are old traders, and there are bold traders, but there are no old, bold traders ...
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There must be some old and "bald" traders :D

Cheers!
 
We have made it to 800 like I had thought we would. Long term downtrend looking good here. Long signals are only bounces in a very long term downtrend. I would imagine 200 is not out of the question on the SP and 1600 on the Dow within the next year or two. Fortunately, I have been out of equities for a year now and am just dollar cost averaging back in at small rates. Once, I see the Super Long Term Trend reverse to the upside, I will once again be long full force in my portfolio. That could be years away. Hopefully, everyone has seen why successful traders only trade with the trend and not against it and why it is important to avoid the trades which are countertrend. :)
 
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