ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

volente_00 · Nov 17, 2008

Quote from tommymoose:

I've been in an AH trade slump recently... gotta hang tough though.

Long ES 848.25
stop 846.50
target 855.25

You want me to ring the BOYS up to break your slump ?

volente_00 · Nov 17, 2008

Quote from Jahajee:

EXPIRATION PROBABILITIES

I cannot remember an option expiration where
the markets devlined during 8 or 9 consecutive days prior to
expiration Friday. As of today the markets have
declined 5 of the last six days ( or 6 of the last 7 days?
it was mentined on Bloomberg).
It is highly probable that there will be a bounce - maybe not a
gap up and ADU day but more likely intense selling to
SPX 800 or thereabouts and then a sharp reversal for at least
2 days.
Traders should be on the alert. You can get the MAX PAIN values on several web sites or search ET.

I'm glad we agree

Quote from volente_00:

High probability you get your 902 this week, only problem is 808 -810 could be seen before it happens.

tommymoose · Nov 17, 2008

Quote from volente_00:

You want me to ring the BOYS up to break your slump ?

Get em on the horn for me volente

Its not looking too good. Zone tested and repelled quickly multiple times but they keep coming back.

5-min MACD histo also suggests further downside. However when this occurs and further downside doesn't come the move up is generally more powerful.

saliva · Nov 17, 2008

Quote from Decel:

Isn't it falling a tad fast though? I expected a decent bounce before falling further. Also, with everyone eye-ing 760, wouldn't people jump the gun?

No doubt, this has got to be the most challenging times for both bulls and bears alike. The last thing to expect from this market is any semblance of reason or rhyme. Hence, I can't answer whether this market is falling too fast or not. Anything goes is my latest motto.

As for jumping the gun at 760, I can't give you a definitive answer on that either. But you would need a nerve of steel to jump the gun in this kind of market. I wouldn't peg too much hope unless proven otherwise.

saliva · Nov 17, 2008

Quote from Jahajee:

EXPIRATION PROBABILITIES

I cannot remember an option expiration where
the markets devlined during 8 or 9 consecutive days prior to
expiration Friday. As of today the markets have
declined 5 of the last six days ( or 6 of the last 7 days?
it was mentined on Bloomberg).
It is highly probable that there will be a bounce - maybe not a
gap up and ADU day but more likely intense selling to
SPX 800 or thereabouts and then a sharp reversal for at least
2 days.
Traders should be on the alert. You can get the MAX PAIN values on several web sites or search ET.

I dunno, bro. I think we'll plow ourselves right through 800. I'll see ya on the other side.

volente_00 · Nov 17, 2008

Quote from saliva:

I dunno, bro. I think we'll plow ourselves right through 800. I'll see ya on the other side.

If that happens, keep an eye on the 80 spy put interest, if you see it spike, then they are going to smoke the shorts as this runs back to 850-880 min intraday by friday.

smilingsynic · Nov 17, 2008

Quote from Decel:

Isn't it falling a tad fast though? I expected a decent bounce before falling further. Also, with everyone eye-ing 760, wouldn't people jump the gun?

Everyone is eyeing 760-780 on the cash, because it is likely to go there.

Last year, the SPX hit a new all-time high, crossed the March 2000 high of 1552 or so, made it up to around 25 points in fresh breakout territory, and then went back into the range--a Wyckoff upthrust, a failed upside breakout.

The market will now test the other side--the October 2002 low of 768 and change. This is a low risk buy area. Likely it will break the 2002 lows, maybe even dip 20 or so points below, and then the bear move will be over.

saliva · Nov 17, 2008

Quote from smilingsynic:

Everyone is eyeing 760-780 on the cash, because it is likely to go there.

Last year, the SPX hit a new all-time high, crossed the March 2000 high of 1552 or so, made it up to around 25 points in fresh breakout territory, and then went back into the range--a Wyckoff upthrust, a failed upside breakout.

The market will now test the other side--the October 2002 low of 768 and change. This is a low risk buy area. Likely it will break the 2002 lows, maybe even dip 20 or so points below, and then the bear move will be over.

No, that ain't the bottom of the cesspool. Granted that there will be a relief rally or two or three, or possibly four as we've lately seen, we're heading down to 500. Plus, there's no way we'll get a V-shape reversal once we hit the bottom. It's going to be a long and painful U-shape recovery.

smilingsynic · Nov 17, 2008

Quote from saliva:

No, that ain't the bottom of the cesspool. Granted that there will be a relief rally or two or three, or possibly four as we've lately seen, we're heading down to 500. Plus, there's no way we'll get a V-shape reversal once we hit the bottom. It's going to be a long and painful U-shape recovery.

Who's talking about a V-shape reversal?

ammo · Nov 17, 2008

1929,1987 highs, tl supp at 795-800 , we've been above this since 95. 1942,74 and 1982 lows bring in a tl near 610. It's logical that we break this line and trade in the 600-800 range,but i would think there would be too much money to be made on exp,especially since the volatility would dry up if we move into a 200 point range. They could pop it up on fri opening for the spx mark,and then sell it hard into the close for the spy options,if they could actually orchestrate this move ,it would be hard to pass up. Purely conjecture,not a prediction.