ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from Specterx:

How do you square this with the experience of Japan? They went through a similar credit/RE bust, and America's savings situation is much worse.

Interestingly, just as we've seen with the US indexes, a year after the top the Nikkei had lost about a third of its value - 38k to 23-26k. That was in 1991; N225 is now at 8,500. I don't know about you but the SPX has collapsed far faster than I personally was expecting.

I think we won't get it this bad if only because our population is still growing, and therefore the economy=stock market will grow in absolute terms (in Japan, even GDP growth of zero means an increase in per-capita terms, though evidently it's not the stuff of bull markets). But, the historical warnings are there nonetheless. It goes without saying that a similar 20-year performance on the S&P would be catastrophic for the USA, due to our reliance on 401(k)s and the like. You thought the $40 trillion SS hole was bad before...
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My friend, JAPAN is country with homogeneous aging population, a closed nation similiar to most Far East countries. They do not have the energy, verve, innovation and free spirit like America.
And, ulitmately, their destinies are firnly entwined with that of the US. This is the case for all non-SuperPowers, including the Europeans.
 
Quote from Lawrence Chan:

Spec,

Your post on 5 stages of grief reminded me of an episode of Simpsons that Homer ate some Fugu (blowfish) and thought that he's dying :)
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Great episode, one of my all-time favorites. Witness Relocation Program and Clown College being the top 2.
 
S/R values from supportresistancetrading.com:



981.75
971.25
962
949
926.25
897.25
884.25
874.5
837


I still think we go back to test 874 or 884. Upside, we may reach 957.
 
I am crossing my fingers so posting this wouldn't bring bad mojo, but here is what I was expecting:

micry1.png


And here is where we are right now:

25fu7ti.png


So we are going right now according to my plan posted on Monday...
 
Quote from supernaut:

while you guys were sleeping, we went from 20 in the red to up 11 now.

30+ point swing in the ON session,the 6th or 7th big swing we've had ON recently

I think I will focus on the night session until further notice, and leave the daytime stuff to amateurs
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Where have you been the past 4 years ?
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:


I am still only trading the short side, selling rallies as I have been for quite some time.
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Obviously you can do as you please, but I was wondering why you no longer post your trades.
 
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