ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from ggoyal:

usually about a point, then i just add mega size. it has worked awefully well. But i enter my first 1 contract on during pullbacks or popups and set a stop for that 1 contract at the bottom close of that HL or LH depending.

With one contract I am able to allow more room for noise, then when the position does start heading my way(usually a point) I jump in. There is risk I agree, but when u enter very close to the popup or pullback when the move has just begun, chances r u will be good for a couple of points. Just look at your charts.

Then, as i mentioned earlier, I scale out at crucial levels.

it is almost similar to scaling in, except in terms of risk, but in terms of $$ made. Risk is obviously when mega size is added, it goes against you, but then i get out quickly. again, usually a point, but max pretty much 2 point loss on big size.

Scaling in is a superior strategy. With scaling in, you r able to add from the start of the new trend and keep adding more at popups and pullbacks at which point u r already in the money. wayy less risk with scaling in.

thinking about switching, but scaling in is darn hard. I havent had any major losses, as i usually cut them at 2 points.
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The only problem I have with chasing the move is if you add the size chasing it and then you set a 2 point stop and it retraces and you get stopped out for the full size where as if you were in at the beginning you have that extra buffer because your were in early but if what you are doing works for you then why change it? With this current volatility the r to r is insane. Once the moves start they are wicked and fast with very little chop. When volatility dries up and we get more chop days your style may not work as well.
 
Quote from ggoyal:

usually about a point, then i just add mega size. it has worked awefully well. But i enter my first 1 contract on during pullbacks or popups and set a stop for that 1 contract at the bottom close of that HL or LH depending.

With one contract I am able to allow more room for noise, then when the position does start heading my way(usually a point) I jump in. There is risk I agree, but when u enter very close to the popup or pullback when the move has just begun, chances r u will be good for a couple of points. Just look at your charts.

Then, as i mentioned earlier, I scale out at crucial levels.

it is almost similar to scaling in, except in terms of risk, but in terms of $$ made. Risk is obviously when mega size is added, it goes against you, but then i get out quickly. again, usually a point, but max pretty much 2 point loss on big size.

Scaling in is a superior strategy. With scaling in, you r able to add from the start of the new trend and keep adding more at popups and pullbacks at which point u r already in the money. wayy less risk with scaling in.

thinking about switching, but scaling in is darn hard. I havent had any major losses, as i usually cut them at 2 points.
More...
if you used a 2 point stop today,you were stopped out on all but the 3 big moves,its that way on most days,today we were moving up and down 5 points in seconds before a change in direction
 
Quote from Spectre2007:

2008 crash rebuild,.

next weekly bar should range high around 1040-50
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spec ,on both of those moves and in '29, we pulled down again before rallying,so there may be another dip to buy
 
Quote from ammo:

spec ,on both of those moves and in '29, we pulled down again before rallying,so there may be another dip to buy
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if the price escapes... too high.. and people look for the second wave down, and it doesn't appear.. what then?

things are very atypical.
 
Quote from ammo:

if you used a 2 point stop today,you were stopped out on all but the 3 big moves,its that way on most days,today we were moving up and down 5 points in seconds before a change in direction
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no i didn't. i only got stopped out only once. I enter large size only after my first contract is in the money at which point the trend is confirmed, or at least enough for me to get in and get out.

But again, I want to maximize my points/contract which is why i am thinking about scaling in.

anyway
 
Quote from Spectre2007:

if the price escapes... too high.. and people look for the second wave down, and it doesn't appear.. what then?

things are very atypical.
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the '94 and 02,03 trendline around 1050-1080,may cause a pullback,then again they seem to move it on exp fri whereever needed to close desired puts at zero,maybe if you pm vol , he will share those coveted equations he seems to easily figure out
 
It is reasonable to assume at this point that there will be a retest of the 2002 bear market lows: 777 on the SPX.

Weekly S1 on the ES is 789.75; daily S2 is at 783.50.

Based on the assumptions that if S1 is tested yet holds, then R1 is a projected target; and that the first day of a week tends to be close to either the high or low of the week, a move to the 780's that dries up should imply a move to over 1000 by the end of the week. Expiration week, actually.

When it comes to monthly pivot points, 812 is S3, and S2 is 1003.75.

Iow, if sellling dries up in the 780's, then 1000 is not an unreasonable short-term target.

No ES, for the moment.
 
Bull markets climb a wall of worry. And bull markets are built on maximum pessimism, just like bear markets are built on excessive optimism.

At some point, the market is going to have discounted bad news in the future.

Bad news will still come out, and some really bad news might come out, but the market won't care.

Fundamentalists and permabears will short rallies, arguing that the news is bad and will get worse.

They'll claim that they market is ignoring the bad news, and that the other shoe is going to drop soon, and the market will fall back down. You betcha.

But the market will keep climbing nonetheless, up and up that wall of worry.

Bear markets in general do not last long. This one is about to end.


What is the evidence for my assertion that a bull is about to begin?

In terms of market technicals, the market is more oversold than ever.

The closest comparisons include July 23, 2002, October 3, 1974, and May 26, 1970.

Within three months after those days, the market had risen at least 19.90% (highest was 23.26%).

Within six months, the market had gone up 27.90% (1970), 41.23% (1974), and 21.21% (2002).

If history is any precedent, the bear is about to go into hibernation any day now.
 
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