ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Just another thought while volatility is low, it would appear that down the road credit default swaps are going to be regulated there may be some opportunities for an exchange. Aig managed to lose 6 billion on CDS from what I have read. Remember if you are winning you are the "golden child" , top trader, etc. when you lose you are a "rogue" trader. :p
 
the vote on the bailout package is the stupidest thing ever

NO CAREER politician will DARE vote against it..... (even if its the right choice, im not saying that)

the reason is simple, if they vote against it, and the economy worsens (which it will most likely do anyways), the voters are going to throw their ass out for failing to help them.

so again, the vote is POINTLESS, pretty much every career politician is going to vote YES for bailout, pure and simple.
 
Quote from Smeagol1996:

Thx for analysis. With R:R of basically 1:1 why would I need to be right 100%?...shouldn't 58%+ be enough
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Just think if you were right 58% of the time(or less) and got 8 points.
 
i was wrong, buffet news didnt do jack. This market is unbelievably weak and skittish, the vix actually went UP when es went to 1200 early morning.

The only focus is the 700B bailout, rubberband is winded very tight, expecting another blackswan event (up or down) when the bailout plan is sorted.
 
No need to feel discouraged though. You learn by asking questions, that is okay. His point was not in the math, and close stop and target is just not his style.

Good trading to you.


Quote from Smeagol1996:

Really didn't mean for it to come across that way. I didn't understand what Buy1Sell2's reasoning was and hoped he would explain. Guess I should have worded more carefully..
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Quote from newguy05:

i was wrong, buffet news didnt do jack. This market is unbelievably weak and skittish, the vix actually went UP when es went to 1200 early morning.

The only focus is the 700B bailout, rubberband is winded very tight, expecting another blackswan event (up or down) when the bailout plan is sorted.
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His news did something indeed.

Popped ES 20 pts up. THEN, when he speaks on CNBC, that killed the pop because he mentioned that he likes only GS, nothing else in the sector.
 
i think the reason it dropped is because buffet said he did the deal based on the assumption the bailout will get done, NOT on current fundamentals. That had everyone focused right back to the bailout, and the market tanked back to the old level based on the current bailout sentiment.
 
94 -99 was yesterdays cleavge on mp,/very small cleavage target above at 1203 /and the nip if we rally for res is 1208/,just backfilling yesterdays prices,/yest low 1185 and todays 82 show a fear to sell in front of bailout news,/language from congresss to me says they are not ready to make any quick decision so spu's should stay tight/ ,no breakouts,/easy to sell res and buy supp ... edit.. transports are leading the spu's
 
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