ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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thanks b1s2 for your reply to my questions on the currency futures thread.

Since my next comments are more general market in nature I figured I would post them here.

I will like to share with you guys a little background regarding my thinking behavior and background.

I used to be a real estate investor before I jumped into trading full time. In real estate I was taught that as an investor, money was made at the time you bought a property, not when you sold it. Which is very true. (meaning that by the time you close the purchase you already have a profit build into the deal)

When I started trading I either read it somewhere or came to realize that the opposite to real estate would work in trading. Money in trading was made at the time you sold, or closed a position, not before.

What I have learned from b1s2 is that the real money in trading is made when you HOLD.....

big change in my psyche.

The ironic part is that it took me a long time to institute the art of placing stops and profit targets into my trading (nowadays I don't trade without them). Now b1s2 is telling me, correctly, that profit targets are not so good in the long run and I understand the reason perfectly. Putting that thought into a trading plan when you are just starting to build your trading account (with much to learn still about this business), is somewhat difficult to do, if not impossible.

It is much easier to do if you are underleveraged. But first I have to build my fortress in order to be able to trade underleveraged. And there is no way I will build this fortress anytime soon by being underleveraged.

For now I have no choice but to stick to my profit targets and stops which I believe I am becoming an expert at.

Appreciate any thoughts.

Cheers !
 
Hi B1, I remember quite a few months ago your outlook was bearish from ~October 06? I understand your current outlook (bullish), but have you still got them 9 units short or not, I think I could have missed you mentioning that position.
 
Just wanted to point out here that there has been classic Bullish divergence on the 5 minute chart and if you go to the Euro FX 5 minute chart, there is classic Bearish Divergence.
 
Quote from romik:

Hi B1, I remember quite a few months ago your outlook was bearish from ~October 06? I understand your current outlook (bullish), but have you still got them 9 units short or not, I think I could have missed you mentioning that position.

I was wrong on my time frame for the move to 1150-1180. I suspect at some time that may happen, but for now I was wrong. I have of course been very very right on the upmove (and was correct on the down move prior). The 9 shorts I sold quite a long time ago. I would need to search this journal to find the post. Will do--
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

I was wrong on my time frame for the move to 1150-1180. I suspect at some time that may happen, but for now I was wrong. I have of course been very very right on the upmove (and was correct on the down move prior). The 9 shorts I sold quite a long time ago. I would need to search this journal to find the post. Will do--

no need, i just wanted to know whether you still held them
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

In addition, I am ending my 3 year experiment with two accounts. It has served well, and has helped me stay in trades, but I think has decreased my overall returns. I am good enough at trading directiionally that I don't need that feature. I am continuing my out of the money call selling as an income producing hedge. Research on my portfolio over the last 5 yrs shows that this is more profitable than the two account futures hedge. Lots of changes today--an old dog can learn new tricks! All positions in second account have been closed at 1295.75 today.

Romik, Here is where I got out of the positional shorts 8-16-06.
 
Quote from optionpro007:

For now I have no choice but to stick to my profit targets and stops which I believe I am becoming an expert at.

Appreciate any thoughts.

Cheers !
My comment is that with markets like corn or mini beans, a trader can get in and trade for the long term. You could use profit targets there as well. The more exciting markets, it may take a bit more money, but I would rather have the grubstake and trade for position especially for a newer trader. That's the issue with the markets--the newbie goes to daytrading before they should be trading at all. It just gives the rest of us liquid places to get in and get out.
 
I believe on intraday basis it's more beneficial to know beforehand where you might be exiting, positional is way different, intraday there is no time to allow to wait for a reversal set-up to happen (same TF as entry obviously) and only then thinking about exiting, as it can easily half unrealised profits. Here is an hourly chart with an A-class BRD, everything is self-explanatory on it to the ones that have been following B1's charts and the ones that know how divergences work anyway. The main point I wanted to make by posting that chart is PT, which I have annotated on the chart. Feedback welcome :)

P.S. Considering the longer TF trend (bullish) it wouldn't be wise holding this short to the lower and especially not in the hope it price would break through the lower channel, a lot safer either to cover near the bottom of channel and/or perhaps reversing there, I would wait for a reversal signal personally. Going long here one can set PT at the upper channel level and/or higher.
 

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