ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from JSSPMK:

Pekelo, do you think today has a better chance of being an ADU?
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It is too early to tell. I like the fact that futures are about even, I don't like when there is a big gap for an ADU, because the question remains if it is going to fill or not?

The first 15-20 mins should tell what we can expect. For an ADU the Dow should be up at least a decent 70-90+ points by 9:45 and topping around 10, just like yesterday. (Although there is such a thing as weak ADU, when the rally has less strength and it might end with a selloff after 2pm.)

Yesterday we followed the ADU timeline until 11:30 beautifully. Shorting around 10 was rewarding and switching to longs both at the Williams extreme at 10:20 and at the 11 am timeline made gains. But the Fannie Mae news ended the fun...

I can only predict patterns, not news... :(
 
Quote from JSSPMK:

So that would make it ~1:2.6 risk/reward, correct? That's like 5p gain using 2 point stop. WTG, but ImPO it's not great, even though 120p might seem like a lot to some

I wish you get more gain out of this one
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I don't consider risk/reward. I only look at what I can lose as a percentage of my TLNW. As long as I control the losses and let the winners run, I am fine. I could have a very low win percentage and still come out well ahead. That is positive expectancy at it's finest. :)
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

I don't consider risk/reward. I only look at what I can lose as a percentage of my TLNW. As long as I control the losses and let the winners run, I am fine. I could have a very low win percentage and still come out well ahead. That is positive expectancy at it's finest. :)
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If you get stopped for +120, then 3 losses would wipe out your gain on this trade, theoretically of course

"I could have a very low win percentage and still come out well ahead"

If one was to implement a win/loss ratio of 1:5 using 1:2.6 r/r, then he would not be profitable ImPO

After all, you keep advocating for letting profits run longer, 1:2.6 seems to be in controversy to that
 
Quote from JSSPMK:

If you get stopped for +120, then 3 losses would wipe out your gain on this trade, theoretically of course

"I could have a very low win percentage and still come out well ahead"

If one was to implement a win/loss ratio of 1:5 using 1:2.6 r/r, then he would not be profitable ImPO

After all, you keep advocating for letting profits run longer, 1:2.6 seems to be in controversy to that
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Initial stop is simply a catastrophic stop that gets moved towards the trade very quickly. I can't recall the last time my initial stop has been hit on a position trade. So , yes the risk to reward here would be in the range you are speaking of but there would never be a 1 to 5 as you described. There could potentially be a 1 to 5 after a few days, but the risk has decreased quite a bit by then. For example.:within just two days, my stop was at 1442.00 and by the end of the 12th day, it was at 1416.75.
--My initial stop is hit less than 5 percent of the time when I enter a catastrophic stop as the initial--
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Initial stop is simply a catastrophic stop that gets moved towards the trade very quickly. I can't recall the last time my initial stop has been hit on a position trade. So , yes the risk to reward here would be in the range you are speaking of but there would never be a 1 to 5 as you described. There could potentially be a 1 to 5 after a few days, but the risk has decreased quite a bit by then. For example.:within just two days, my stop was at 1442.00 and by the end of the 12th day, it was at 1416.75.
--My initial stop is hit less than 5 percent of the time when I enter a catastrophic stop as the initial--
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ahh that's different, I just went by what you said about win/loss. Obviously you were referring to losses based on trailed stops, not initial stops. Cool, TY!
 
When I start a trade with the initial stop at catastrophic level, that represents very nearly 2 percent of TLNW. I would consider a loss of 2 percent of TLNW to be a catastrophe. Bringing the stop in closer lowers win percentage, but increases your reward to risk scenario.
 
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