ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Yeah you're right, and it never firmed up.
Whoever said the financials don't trend couldn't be more wrong.
Out at 1297.75 with this last add... +6.0 points.
Still long one more from 1308.75
Edit: If the model dictates, I'd like to re-enter again from the long side.
Scaled out of swing trade between 1879 and 1881 for small losses. Weak lunch time rally concerned me.
I am be premature for getting out instead of holding overnight, but on trend days like this, the odds on play is to wait until after the close.
I wrote this about a year ago under the thread "How not to blow up trading stock index futures":
"Don't trade countertrend on a trend day.
No $hit, sherlock. How does one know it is going to be a trend day?
Consider the following as generalizations based on my own experience. And if it helps you avoid losing half your nut (or more) on a day like this (Friday, October 19, S&P down 2 1/2%and falling), then good:
1. Strongly trending markets tend to move in tight channels, and there is little movement away from the trend, and little movement back to the open. The stronger the trend, the smaller the pullback.
2. When the market gaps down, and then trades up to a point that there is a swing high below the gap, there is generally at least another strong move down for the day. Gap (or strong move) plus mid-day consolidation equals late afternoon continuation.
Likewise, when the market gaps up, and then trades down to a point that there is a swing low above the gap, there generally is at least another strong move up for the day
In other words, there is usually a chance to get out a mid-day. If you have been fading all morning, you might want to take advantage.
3. On a trend day, the trend tends to become stronger as the trading day becomes longer. Therefore, on a trend day, the stubborn countertrend trader risks suffering significant losses.
4. If the market consolidates at support and does not bounce off, that support will probably not hold. The longer the market consolidates at support, the more likely it will successfully be breached. Likewise, if the market consolidates at resistance and does not back off, that resistance will probably not hold. The longer the market consolidates at resistance, the more likely it will successfully be breached.
5. If the market breezes through S2 or R2 levels early in the day, as if they didn't exist, they probably didn't.
Good luck to all (unless you are on the other side of my trade)."
Based on the above 5 criteria, I would surmise that today is a trend day.
1. Large gap down that did not even try to fill.
2. S2 is way up there, like the top of the ceiling in a cathedral.
3. Support? 1270-1280 on the ES. That is a ways away.
4. Lunchtime rally = tight channel., Strong trend + consolidation = probably continuation.
"Don't trade countertrend on a trend day.
No $hit, sherlock. How does one know it is going to be a trend day?
Consider the following as generalizations based on my own experience. And if it helps you avoid losing half your nut (or more) on a day like this (Friday, October 19, S&P down 2 1/2%and falling), then good:
1. Strongly trending markets tend to move in tight channels, and there is little movement away from the trend, and little movement back to the open. The stronger the trend, the smaller the pullback.
2. When the market gaps down, and then trades up to a point that there is a swing high below the gap, there is generally at least another strong move down for the day. Gap (or strong move) plus mid-day consolidation equals late afternoon continuation.
Likewise, when the market gaps up, and then trades down to a point that there is a swing low above the gap, there generally is at least another strong move up for the day
In other words, there is usually a chance to get out a mid-day. If you have been fading all morning, you might want to take advantage.
3. On a trend day, the trend tends to become stronger as the trading day becomes longer. Therefore, on a trend day, the stubborn countertrend trader risks suffering significant losses.
4. If the market consolidates at support and does not bounce off, that support will probably not hold. The longer the market consolidates at support, the more likely it will successfully be breached. Likewise, if the market consolidates at resistance and does not back off, that resistance will probably not hold. The longer the market consolidates at resistance, the more likely it will successfully be breached.
5. If the market breezes through S2 or R2 levels early in the day, as if they didn't exist, they probably didn't.
Good luck to all (unless you are on the other side of my trade)."
Based on the above 5 criteria, I would surmise that today is a trend day.
1. Large gap down that did not even try to fill.
2. S2 is way up there, like the top of the ceiling in a cathedral.
3. Support? 1270-1280 on the ES. That is a ways away.
4. Lunchtime rally = tight channel., Strong trend + consolidation = probably continuation.
NQ below 71 is a 20 pt gap.
Watch out.
Watch out.
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