ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from romik:

What I find VERY interesting about Spike's posts is his ability to analyse near-future probability of continuation.
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This is exactly what I think. It challenges you to improve your game, to improve your entries, exits and hold time.

Looks like the FOMC minutes could cause some downside. So maybe a slow ramp up until then, hmmm :)
 
To Romik,

what I meant is that you can defend a support or resistance but your firing power is not infinite.

It felt like defending 1299 was key and you could see some unbelievable bids appearing for less than a second, in excess of 4000 ES sometimes.

I believe it's a new tactic in place to screw high frequency trading systems relying on the distributions of bids and offers in the market in the very short term. Lots of these systems will base their trading on non-linearities in the market. By posting humongous bids you kind of derail their system and provoke a mini rally.

But when selling pressure is real, i.e. cash equities being sold forcing arbitrage relationships to be enforced, it doesn't work.

This may sound funny too many of you and quite off the point from the exchanges being made in this thread which I greatly enjoy. Well done to all the contributors.
 
Quote from romik:

What I find VERY interesting about Spike's posts is his ability to analyse near-future probability of continuation... .... overall I think he is an asset to ET and there are not that many.
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Cannot agree more in this point. It is always interesting to see his trades even when they are not posted in real time. But it always depends what you extract from these information. At least they can give you good reference points for further investigation....
 
Quote from Alexandre:

To Romik,

what I meant is that you can defend a support or resistance but your firing power is not infinite.

It felt like defending 1299 was key and you could see some unbelievable bids appearing for less than a second, in excess of 4000 ES sometimes.

I believe it's a new tactic in place to screw high frequency trading systems relying on the distributions of bids and offers in the market in the very short term. Lots of these systems will base their trading on non-linearities in the market. By posting humongous bids you kind of derail their system and provoke a mini rally.

But when selling pressure is real, i.e. cash equities being sold forcing arbitrage relationships to be enforced, it doesn't work.

This may sound funny too many of you and quite off the point from the exchanges being made in this thread which I greatly enjoy. Well done to all the contributors.
More...

Thanks for the explanation, I understood all of it apart from the last paragraph :) it sounds like a compliment to all though.

I assume you are tape based trader trading 100 lots at a time, if my memory serves me correctly. Your 3rd paragraph, I think it's a very common procedure that "locals" have been doing for quite some time now, I agree there.
 
Quote from Alexandre:

To Romik,

what I meant is that you can defend a support or resistance but your firing power is not infinite.

It felt like defending 1299 was key and you could see some unbelievable bids appearing for less than a second, in excess of 4000 ES sometimes.

I believe it's a new tactic in place to screw high frequency trading systems relying on the distributions of bids and offers in the market in the very short term. Lots of these systems will base their trading on non-linearities in the market. By posting humongous bids you kind of derail their system and provoke a mini rally.

But when selling pressure is real, i.e. cash equities being sold forcing arbitrage relationships to be enforced, it doesn't work.

This may sound funny too many of you and quite off the point from the exchanges being made in this thread which I greatly enjoy. Well done to all the contributors.
More...


Good post

Some good threads on volume and bid ask depth by AMT4SWA and Scientist

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...5511&perpage=20&highlight=volume&pagenumber=1

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...5241&perpage=20&highlight=volume&pagenumber=1

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...perpage=20&highlight=index depth&pagenumber=1

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=44993&perpage=20&pagenumber=1
 
 
yes, it's a compliment to all the contributors to this thread. I was just saying my comment was not that relevant to what is being discussed in this thread.

yes, I trade ES in multiples of 100. Currently short and waiting for Bernanke to be out of the way. We should get some direction after.

I feel we are in a very difficult trading environment where markets literally jump and exhibit very little liquidity (the two being linked).

Enough thread pollution from me. Let's get back to serious discussions.
 
At the moment of the previous prediction the system told me to get out in the first bottom after the 60 minutes period. This bottom was when we hit the low of the day, 1297.50 (till now).

As the system is dynamical it auto adapts itself to the market.
We will normally have an upwards correction and after that correction we will normally make a new low of the day. That's what i think. But i trade my system, not what i think, so if the system changes direction in respond to the market i will follow my system.
Predicting is fun and amusement, but trading is a serious matter.
 
Quote from spike500:

At the moment of the previous prediction the system told me to get out in the first bottom after the 60 minutes period. This bottom was when we hit the low of the day, 1297.50 (till now).

As the system is dynamical it auto adapts itself to the market.
We will normally have an upwards correction and after that correction we will normally make a new low of the day. That's what i think. But i trade my system, not what i think, so if the system changes direction in respond to the market i will follow my system.
Predicting is fun and amusement, but trading is a serious matter.
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I would still say a very confidently outlined nice call Spike on the hold time, I've seen you do that before with great accuracy, amazing stuff.
 
The upward correction ended some 10 minutes ago. The decline should start now and lead us to a new low of the day. As things look now the short will continue till the close of the day.


Quote from spike500:

At the moment of the previous prediction the system told me to get out in the first bottom after the 60 minutes period. This bottom was when we hit the low of the day, 1297.50 (till now).

As the system is dynamical it auto adapts itself to the market.
We will normally have an upwards correction and after that correction we will normally make a new low of the day. That's what i think. But i trade my system, not what i think, so if the system changes direction in respond to the market i will follow my system.
Predicting is fun and amusement, but trading is a serious matter.
More...
 
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