ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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here is food for thought about all the corps going to china etc for lower wages and costs etc. the first couple of decades it works. how long will it be before the Chinese workers etc start exporting their wage cost increases to the USA and we IMPORT their inflation problems with higher costs of the goods we first received as cheaper.

Soner or later the cows come home whem comparative advantage in economics change.

The USA will be importing inflation. .. :eek: but by then we might be broke anyway. :eek:
 
Quote from OldTrader:

I don't know much about the arithmetric versus geometric adjustments. But in terms of seasonal adjustments, the purpose was so that economists could measure one period versus another without getting distortion due to the time of year. The idea was that over the year these adjustments would wash, but again, allow a real comparison between periods.

I think the principle of seasonal adjustments made some sense. Whether it worked out though is another question. I don't know the answer to that one. It does seem pretty clear that the CPI understates what most of us experience.

It wouldn't be all that surprising that the government officials made a few changes so they could underpay the social security recipients.

OldTrader
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exactly by keeping the inflation numbers low less money is paid out. Not trying to get all Oliver Stone but the simple fact is that no can tell me with a straight face that inflation is 2% a year. Ask some middle class guy with 4 kids. Sorry did not mean to get off topic, but from a trading standpoint I would be looking to get short, not necessarily today. Its all about how the market discounts the news, next week it will be the end of the world again and so on. By the way kudos to Specte for calling the volatility spike at 20.00.
 
Maybe in a couple decades your grandkids will be thrilled to get a job because some chinese company decided to move the plant to the USA for lower wages and to screw the workers in the homeland in the name of profits just like we have seen our workers get the shaft the last couple of decades.

!355.50 acting as support now, then that 1353.00, bulls hanging tough during slow time of day. After lunch should tell the story.
 
Quote from OldTrader:

I don't know much about the arithmetric versus geometric adjustments. But in terms of seasonal adjustments, the purpose was so that economists could measure one period versus another without getting distortion due to the time of year. The idea was that over the year these adjustments would wash, but again, allow a real comparison between periods.

I think the principle of seasonal adjustments made some sense. Whether it worked out though is another question. I don't know the answer to that one. It does seem pretty clear that the CPI understates what most of us experience.

It wouldn't be all that surprising that the government officials made a few changes so they could underpay the social security recipients.

OldTrader
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When the Value Line futures, whose underlying index is a geometric average, came out there was a lot of discussion of geometric vs. arithmetic. As I recall the problem with arithmetic is that if you have a portfolio indexed at 100 and it drops to 90%, you have lost 10% but if it then goes back to 100 in the next period you've gained 11%, making it look as if there is a net gain when in fact there is none. Geometric averaging is supposed to be a better reflector of net portfolio change.
 
Quote from JSSPMK:

I see a bounce off 1, but longer charts are looking bearish to me
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It will be interesting how this plays out. 99% of the time, it will bounce off the 200ema on the first leg down. I have a 2 point stop will adjust when the prices moves up.

Edit: In reference to the 200ema, I am using a one minute chart.

long at 4850.
 
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