ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[Spectre2007]

Quote from Spectre2007:

you have age going for you, here is a tidbit..

1) price is a variable a function of time, x - axis (time) y - axis (price)

2) the price can have wide ranges per time bar. Time bars (ticks, minutes, daily, weekly, monthly)

3) entry into these time bars in the middle whether it be short or long will blow your position out if enough leverage is used. Eventually your reduced to entries at only previous highs or lows of those time bars. ie significant resistance/support or taking minimal leverage.

4) countertrend trading at outliers is very profitable mainly at resistance or support holding.

5) price becomes reduced to probability distribution as a price channel or market profile.

6) setups are rare because price usually is trading in the middle of the market profile or channels most of the time. Thus setups are mainly at entries near the outliers such as the monthly highs or lows, weekly highs or lows..


given conditions:

minute to minute oscillations can't be predicted. second to second sure,... but orderflow expresses itself in terms of price movement (gaps)

if price is just random oscillations per time bar then what has the most meaning?... what price does at the extremes of the time bar. Meaning can only be elucidated at the extremes. Meaning or intent. The random oscillations of price create a dispersion pattern. When a outlier fails (support or resistance) the next degree of time bar is tested.

what is considered a failure of support or resistance?...

what is considered when support or resistance holds?

how many time bars or price bars need to elapse before that qualifier can be placed on it.

 

[Spectre2007]

directional orderflow implies more orderflow in that direction till the closest support or resistance is tested.

the smallest time fractal is extrapolated to create the largest fractal.. the battles waged in the smallest fractals dictate the picture painted in the larger fractals.

the battles are support /resistance battles of price/time bars.


all the points made above are elucidated in some fashion or another in these videos, the bandwidth purchased will keep these videos online indefinitely..

the smallest timeframe I like to trade is the 240 tick, for daytrading.

http://www.screencast.com/users/Spectre

 

[fearless9]

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

The trader who loses the least when wrong and lets the winners run will be amongst the most successful traders. Now, put the chart together right and add good entries and exits and it only sweetens the pot.

B1S2
Edited I know, but I am in complete agreement.

"The never ending quest for efficiency"

regards
f9

 

[fearless9]

Quote from Spectre2007:

.....the smallest timeframe I like to trade is the 240 tick, for daytrading.
ctre[/url]

S2007,

Interesting that you give all strikes equal weighting (tick bars) when about 15% of the strikes account for 85% of the contracts traded.

It is my observation that often the price will hang and turn on a small number of strikes, indicating that a few large traders are attacking the DOM wall.
Conversely a large number of strikes indicate that the retailers are breaking out and are about to get creamed.

Anyway, just a couple of thoughts on a sunday

regards
f9

 

[Spectre2007]

excellent arb opportunity in bonds,... see a retest of old highs..

 

[gwac]

Why would anyone think bonds are worth the risk with inflation going up.

Serious question, maybe I a missing something.

Quote from Spectre2007:

excellent arb opportunity in bonds,... see a retest of old highs..

 

[Spectre2007]

sep futures

retrace zone.. 1370-74

<a href="http://content.screencast.com/media/aca71aad-af1d-4f43-8875-9a92a869d5d1_e4e7210a-d70e-4e9a-b1ea-ac06782ba068_static_0_0_06082008-190506.jpg"><img src="http://content.screencast.com/media/aca71aad-af1d-4f43-8875-9a92a869d5d1_e4e7210a-d70e-4e9a-b1ea-ac06782ba068_static_0_0_06082008-190506.jpg" width="1890" height="1025" border="0" /></a>

 

[Spectre2007]

Quote from gwac:

Why would anyone think bonds are worth the risk with inflation going up.

Serious question, maybe I a missing something.

robust economic activity in the face of rising costs of production imply higher yields.

lackluster economic activity in the face of rising costs of production imply lower yields, energy costs act as severe braking mechanism on the economy.

 

[gwac]

and historically how do bonds do in a high inflation low growth situation (stagflation)

Serious question I do not have the answer?

Quote from Spectre2007:

robust economic activity in the face of rising costs of production imply higher yields.

lackluster economic activity in the face of rising costs of production imply lower yields, energy costs act as severe braking mechanism on the economy.

 

[Spectre2007]

Quote from gwac:

and historically how do bonds do in a high inflation low growth situation (stagflation)

Serious question I do not have the answer?

it depends at what stage of the cycle we are in, its still early part of the cycle when yields plummet secondary to economic implications.

with aggressive FED, money supplies stay at historical highs, and the impression of money seeking better rate of return in a comparitive fashion to other asset classes, pushes yields higher.

the recent remarks of the FED on inflation put the bias at hawkish inflationary stance, or lower yields. If the FED gives the impression of being dovish yields skyrocket. The equity market is a good barometer of FED sentiment.