ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from tommymoose:

All hypothetical scenarios of course, but ya gotta have scenarios of some sort in your head have a directional bias right? :)
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It is interesting how different we all are.

I have just spent years clearing my head of all scenarios of any sort at all when it comes to price and where it is heading.

regards
f9
 
Quote from fearless9:

It is interesting how different we all are.

I have just spent years clearing my head of all scenarios of any sort at all when it comes to price and where it is heading.

regards
f9
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Interesting. What are your typical trade target distances?

Its not that I have a set direction in my head, its that I have multiple "If X happens then Y is a possibility" scenarios. You don't have bias's on different timeframes? I like to think sort of like this: macro-trend is up, long-term-trend is down, medium-term trend is up, short-term trend is down... so what zones are important in deciding if each time frames trend will sustain itself. What happens at those zones dictates the trend.

Now I'm getting too abstract... I'll leave it at that.
 
I find it's better to trade with what is known as a binary decision making process.

IOW

1. Identify the trend you want to trade
2. Take a trade when it sets up
3. Idetnfiy what it means for the setup to fail.
4. If the trade fails, exit it (either close the position or use a hard stop - my favorite, because I hate being wrong and exiting manually).
5. Identify a profit target, or just let the trade run until you see the trend ending.

Everthing I just described can be answered with Yes/No - On/Off - 1/0 ... the definition of a binary decsion making process.
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FTR, I'm also a fan of daily profit targets as well ... it keeps you from over-trading and making unforced errors.
 
if u think of that example u gave,2 ups and 2 downs, it sort of cxls itself out, i know it was just an example,but if big trend is up ,small trend just reached its support,i would be bullish until support is broken, and your right a small break doesn't count,theres always momentum in a big move,the selling didn't continue this morning and it held yesterdays low,now we are here again and its holding,i dont really count this part of the day for holding because there is no volume from 11-1,but if it starts to move up around 12:30 chicago time i want to get long, this was aresponse to a tommymoose post, my long target would hopefully reach 1408, gap to fill on yest markt profile
 
Pathetic rally so far was expecting a rebound to at least 140.00 on the spy, starting to move finally. To add to the discussion, for me there are only good and bad entries.
 
Quote from kinggyppo:

Pathetic rally so far
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I second that. Pivot is resistance; opening price is support.

Unless price snaps back strongly up this afternoon, tomorrow looks like a downside continuation of yesterday.
 
Quote from tommymoose:

I'm with ya... this 2-month bull run has momentum. I don't they're going to give up just because a line on a chart broke. Back up to ~1420 is a good possibility and would be a nice area to look for weakness. I'd like to see one more push down first to the 1370's for it to base before the retest attempt though. That would be a little tip-off to a possible change in trend to down (5-waves down).

All hypothetical scenarios of course, but ya gotta have scenarios of some sort in your head have a directional bias right? :)
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Correct my man. You always have to say to yourself "what if" and "Where now" to stay a couple of steps ahead of the market. I do it every morning when I get out of bed, and at bed time before I close my eyes. This mental exercise makes me that much more relaxed when I initiate and/or add to existing positions that aren't necessarily going my way initially. It also prevents me from second guessing myself too much which creates negative energy that ultimately puts the trader on the path of self sabotage.
 
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