ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from bighog:

someone needs to review what a BEAR flag looks like. Please understand the details of what a pattern is representing then you can better understand what is on the chart. That is NO WHERE close to being a BEAR flag. Shame on you.
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Quote from bighog:

A simple google of BEAR FLAG. for a review. http://www.trending123.com/patterns/bear_flag.html
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Since I'm almost sure the criticism was aimed at me since I posted a "bear flag possibility" chart earlier, let me quote verbatim the definition from the link you posted.

"A Flag (Bearish) follows a steep, or nearly vertical decline in price, and consists of two parallel trendlines that form a rectangular flag shape. The Flag can be horizontal (as though the wind is blowing it), however it often has a slight upward trend."

Now I'll repost the chart and you can tell me how this doesn't fit the definition of a bear flag.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1902953
 
:ammo, where did your post go? I was replying to you and now I look crazy hah:

To be honest, I've never back-tested these so I can't say. Thats why I just posted the 'possibility' chart up to see if anyone had thoughts. You can see in the chart that I had some fib resistance at 1393.50. Price actually also made a 3rd push up into that upper TL which made a short there more valid. If you look at the 1-min it looks like the bears tried (~8K contracts on the bar that touched 93.50), but the buyers were just overwhelming today.

I have no way of knowing where the market will go... I just try my best to determine potential turning points before large swings occur. All my stops are less than 2 points, so the idea is that if I'm right 1/4 of the time I'm still in the green.

This week hasn't been the best for me, so if anyone else is "feeling" this market I'd love to hear some outlooks. I know Kovacs called that he thought today might be a copy of Friday, and that was pretty accurate for most of the day, so nice job Kovacs.
 
Hello, did you ever think WHY is flag or wedge formed? And repeats again and again? Those that are not using indicators you will not see it. But is fact it is pattern where the big players are getting out /themselves and market because are market makers/ out of overbought/sold conditions.

Any indicator will show it. You just need use proper timeframe and settings.

Imagine. If you are big "wholesaler" and you will sale everything what you bought market will fall down where it was. Flag is system like sale but the price will fall just partially, because "retail customers" are purchasing from me. Than I have free money and can continue in my prior direction. It is simple one step. I can repeat it few times and then wham change it.

So valueate for me if the flag or wedge will continue is easier. If the overbought/sold indicator is falling but price not as much than it is probable that flag is sucessful and that the original trend will continue.
If not /if price is falling but oversold conditions not than there can be break of trend easily with another words that wedge is new direction/.

There is one problem. RUnning up is possible on very overbought conditions becaus of "borrowing money" I think.
During past days we are often running up in bearish wedges but not falling from there - because marketmaker and PPT is simple "eating that shit".

It is determined somewhat fundametally - they do not want see this market turn down.

If they can lift it over 200EMAS and keep it there I have no idea.
But I assume they are not idiots so the attempt has good chance.
 
Yep Romik- that's the chart I was referring to. I tried to post it last night but kept getting an error message. Thanks for showing it. Good trading today.
 
Quote from riskymove:

Yep Romik- that's the chart I was referring to. I tried to post it last night but kept getting an error message. Thanks for showing it. Good trading today.
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The least 2-3 weeks decreasing vol on the pullbacks has become more important for determining a legit flag up or down. Normally I don't even look at it, but in this decreased activity it's necessary.
 
Short 96.25. 4 Point stop. Target 1390 or lower. C still underpressure, futures failing to recognize. And bonds are also up.


Edit - out +1 at 95.25 on C's announcement of larger than expected offering becasue of stronger demand. Looking for higher entry.
 
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