ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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If we break through to new highs in ES over the next couple days like I suspect we will (NQ already is) I'm ready to take some long-term shorts. There is some heavy heavy resistance from 1405 up to 1430.
There isn't one small zone that stands out the most since its all spread out though. I have a few specific levels in mind, but I wouldn't be surprised in the least for it to turn anywhere in that 25 point area for a huge move down... but I don't like 25 point stops haha. Hopefully some smaller timeframe structure will show up that coincides with one of the larger timeframe resistance levels.
Quote from Spectre2007:
on ts way... previous high in june futures unable to be breached.
Quote from Spectre2007:
update
bond/june futures look like 114 handle soon..
...no news is good news. Good news is good news....
Quote from Spectre2007:
Quote from Spectre2007:
update
bond/june futures look like 114 handle soon..
...no news is good news. Good news is good news....
the warm weather mentality is in, summer should be just range trading consolidation till the fall where economic events/presidential election may override matters. There might be a scare or two but thats it.
if the financial system stays intact and liquidity spreads improve, then equity markets move up. There is a new paradigm for equity markets and that is energy costs. In other parts of the globe high pump costs have been around for many years, but now that the american consumer has to deal with it, is a new crux in the model.
Bet is inflation moves up as bond yields move up with equities, these two markets will end up playing chicken, and eventually when yields reach double digits, equity markets succumb to low risk relative high yield instruments in the credit markets.
where is the breaking point, how high can fuel costs rise before there is a significant impact on the global economy?
its one of the nicer pictures illustrating the relationship between, equity/credit/volatility...on daily charts.
Since there seems to be lull in posting I wanted to canvas traders who might employ Elliot wave counts.
I know you're out there, especially when a wedge starts to form in the 5min chart.
I might be a scalper, but my goal is to spend less time eyes glued to the screens, less trades, and bigger profits per trade. (I don't know whether I shoud even bother with E-wave counts at this point.)
I want to emphasize that I really do not constantly try to count ewaves (toooo subjective for my feeble brain) but when an obvious count pops off the chart at me, it does add to my confidence for assessment of the markets (intraday as well as longer-term timing).
Does anyone care to share any mechanical rules that they might use. (Even if you don't, the lines on the chart are entertaining, but is this simply a case of being "fooled by randomness," or maybe a case of curve fitting as the retracement percentages just happen to work due to the recent volatility?)
selection of the % retracements was totally arbitrary, and I only picked them out once (did not fiddle with them to make the ewave count look pretty). In a mechanical approach to counting, maybe choices for the big wave % retracement count and the smaller wave percentage retracement count could be a function of %average true range over the past 30, 60? trade days.
If you have any thoughts, can you give me an interpretation of what might be going on since the completion of big blue wave 5 on the attached chart?
RE: attached chart,
Chart is daily RTH of the ES in whatever fashion TradeStation adjusts for rollforwards.
Thick Blue Line is the zigzag% retracements of 5%
Thin Red line is zigzag% retracements of 2%
Thin BLACK line is close of ES, daily chart RTH only
It's curiosity if nothing else.
And if this kind of post upsets you, B1S2, I apologize in advance. delete it if you please.
I know you're out there, especially when a wedge starts to form in the 5min chart.
I might be a scalper, but my goal is to spend less time eyes glued to the screens, less trades, and bigger profits per trade. (I don't know whether I shoud even bother with E-wave counts at this point.)
I want to emphasize that I really do not constantly try to count ewaves (toooo subjective for my feeble brain) but when an obvious count pops off the chart at me, it does add to my confidence for assessment of the markets (intraday as well as longer-term timing).
Does anyone care to share any mechanical rules that they might use. (Even if you don't, the lines on the chart are entertaining, but is this simply a case of being "fooled by randomness," or maybe a case of curve fitting as the retracement percentages just happen to work due to the recent volatility?)
selection of the % retracements was totally arbitrary, and I only picked them out once (did not fiddle with them to make the ewave count look pretty). In a mechanical approach to counting, maybe choices for the big wave % retracement count and the smaller wave percentage retracement count could be a function of %average true range over the past 30, 60? trade days.
If you have any thoughts, can you give me an interpretation of what might be going on since the completion of big blue wave 5 on the attached chart?
RE: attached chart,
Chart is daily RTH of the ES in whatever fashion TradeStation adjusts for rollforwards.
Thick Blue Line is the zigzag% retracements of 5%
Thin Red line is zigzag% retracements of 2%
Thin BLACK line is close of ES, daily chart RTH only
It's curiosity if nothing else.
And if this kind of post upsets you, B1S2, I apologize in advance. delete it if you please.
Thanks to ammo, I found a thread that might more appropriately address my questions about a mechanical E-wave count.
After sepnding just a few minutes reading in that thread, I am absolutely convinced that I will not attempt to mechanically count elliot. To me, the markets just aren't that complicated.
Elite trader thread of e-wave, gann etc.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=101387&perpage=6&pagenumber=338
After sepnding just a few minutes reading in that thread, I am absolutely convinced that I will not attempt to mechanically count elliot. To me, the markets just aren't that complicated.
Elite trader thread of e-wave, gann etc.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=101387&perpage=6&pagenumber=338
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