ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from Buy1Sell2:

I think the next hourly bar should be interesting(this last hourly bar finished right at the OS line on RSI). Will it rise above that line or do a failure swing and bearish divergence from yesterdays high. Very interesting to watch. I will check back on the ES in an hour as per my plan.
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my my--just checked in and that was interesting! Looks like more room below, but I am going to stick with my one unit for now as that drop was a little larger than
I usually like to add to--just yet. Sticking with the plan of hourly entry and exits. Certainly a 3 minute chart today would have me both long and short, but the plan is 60 minute charts and that's the way it must be.

addendum-- I lost connectivity for quite a while and this post is not timely

note: this certainly was an hourly class A bearish divergence on histogram and class B on RSI. --and a double failure swing in RSI. Will today be the today that this pattern works for me?
 
From you trades it looks like you chase the move quite a lot, are you using indicators such as rsi, macd or stochastics ? Or perhaps a ma crossover approach ?
 
Quote from volente_00:

From you trades it looks like you chase the move quite a lot, are you using indicators such as rsi, macd or stochastics ? Or perhaps a ma crossover approach ?
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I use BB, MACD (especially the Histogram) , RSI and price. I would say in general that I am not necessarily chasing but playing for reversal or a breakout. I really like double tops and double bottoms in RSI including the second or third peak being lower when looking to short and higher when looking to long. Today, the short term charts would have worked better, but I am not going to switch back and forth each day any more. I also really like the divergence method. In my position trading, this has been a fantastic indicator. The 60 minute chart will be my short frame of the triple screen using the daily and weekly as a backdrop. The first 50 pages of this journal were really me sorting out the time frame chart that I want to use on a consistent basis. This means that I will miss some of the early moves that would be seen on the 3 or 5 minute charts. That's just the way it goes and that's why it appeared that I chased with the second trade today. I will place stops at times, but with these small types of positions on, I won't need them. I will probably use a catastrophic stop on longs that are held overnight. This is all in a different account than the short units that I am accumulating in the positional account. Hopefully, these trades will be held two days or less, but I'll let the indicators show me. Still short two units here. Thanks for the question! Sorry for the length here--:)
 
certainly is a bullish divergence here on hourlies with reference to MACD Histogram. I have closed both units at 1307.5 and gone long there at one unit.

profit 3.5 pts. we'll go with just a catastrophic stop at 1284.50 for now on this one.
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:spike500 on confirmation compared to anticipation

While I respect your viewpoint, I believe that the way you are describing is correct for the smaller speculator. The bigger players, like commercials, institutionals and very importantly index funds play the game more from a position of adding to their trades to develop a good base for when the market is in their favor.

The big profits are made in just this manner. Smaller specs are constantly bailing and the big boys just hold their ground and add . They add as well once the market turns in their favor.

When a trader is capitalized in the right manner, they can be wrong for long periods and then reap huge rewards. All the while, they relate any losses to portfolio size. There are two different ways to trade--yours is not the wrong way.
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Buy1sell2;

Sound like from your last P &L quote 3/30/06;
you did not let you short profit turn into a loss, correct????????
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Some big funds add when it is not in thier favor, they keep anticipating, keep adding to losers;
Long Trerm Capital kept doing that
well capitalized, for sure well capitalized
too bad they never did live thier name-Long Term Capital.

Actually dont like to get in a hurry to buy or sell, even out @ end of day[big trends can take time];
but the times I have accidently had profits turn into losses, that was an honest mistake/ my miss, not part of plan.

:D
 
Quote from murray t turtle:

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Buy1sell2;

Sound like from your last P &L quote 3/30/06;
you did not let you short profit turn into a loss, correct????????
===========================================

Some big funds add when it is not in thier favor, they keep anticipating, keep adding to losers;
Long Trerm Capital kept doing that
well capitalized, for sure well capitalized
too bad they never did live thier name-Long Term Capital.

Actually dont like to get in a hurry to buy or sell, even out @ end of day[big trends can take time];
but the times I have accidently had profits turn into losses, that was an honest mistake/ my miss, not part of plan.

:D
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no , but I never had much profit in the trade to begin with. In fact it was 8.25 pts against me for a bit. The positional account certainly has unrealized losses in it as of now.
 
I didn't like the look of that last bar. Stop will be moved up to 1306.50 which would give us a 1 pt loss if hit. The reason I am staying with the trade is the rising RSI and the MACD and Histogram both looking upwards. In addition, the recent peak on RSI was higher than the one at 2:30 AM EST. It remains to be seen if the next peak which is being attempted now will be higher or lower. This next hourly bar could be key. With no new RSI High or price high, I may get out. This trade is not exactly a real strong one right now. Tenuous at best.
 
After looking at this bar I initiated a short at 1306.25. No stop in for now. The last hourly bar and the one before have a bearish tilt to them with the low near the bottom end of the bar. There was no second peak on the RSI to confirm more upside. In addition, I believe it may be possible to draw a line from yesterday's top of 1319.25 and todays top of 1311.75 and perhaps look at that line extension as a resistance area. As you can see, using the hourly chart instead of the 3 or 5 had me giving back 2 or 3 points profit in the long trade, but that's fine--we are sticking to the plan! We'll take a look next hour and see if the bearish tilt continues or if we reverse.
 
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