ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

4re · Jul 28, 2006

Quote from romik:

thanks man, just trying to hopefully attract more readers to this journal, we have to "fight" Gary over at S/R Journal and hopefully get his followers over here, while he is spending his dough in Vegas! Just kidding

Ouch that hurts...LOL...How did your week go, Romik? Those blackjack dealers will take your money faster than most traders. S/R or divergences don't work in craps any better than they do on blackjack. I was disappointed to learn that.

romik · Jul 29, 2006

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

I thought of another analogy for trading as I was driving today and it is a follows: Day trading is like running up and down the radio dial and getting bits and pieces of songs and never getting the full treatment. You are listening to the end of one song and while you are doing that , you miss the beginning of Stairway to Heaven on another channel. It's more desirable to keep it tuned to one station and get the full enjoyment of a full song (Position trading). Now I know that someone will say that while I am listening to only one station, that I am missing opportunities on other stations, but hey every analogy can't be perfect.

Most daytraders do not have sufficient capitalisation for position trading and the idea of buying and holding 1 contract for a period of 2 weeks (let's say) does not offer enough reward. Most daytraders are lured into daytrading by small margins and the mentality is that I can afford to trade more lots, therefore I can make more per every tick, fair enough if one uses a proven methodology with solid position/money management, but unfortunately that is not the case, as I see it across the board. Not to mention that an overextended position can wipe out a trader in a matter of seconds, these oscillations do happen and we have seen them before. So many guys will enter into trades based purely on their expectations of what's about to happen. Their system should provide probability calculations, but they seem to go for their personal expectations most of the time " I HOPE THAT" etc...and lose eventually or continue posting as they simply pretend trading real money, as no emotion is shown after consecutive losses and/or their capital is the size that an oil baron would have LOL. Daytrading is only for highly disciplined people who play by hard rules set in their methodology (99% of the time).

romik · Jul 29, 2006

Quote from 4re:

Ouch that hurts...LOL...How did your week go, Romik? Those blackjack dealers will take your money faster than most traders. S/R or divergences don't work in craps any better than they do on blackjack. I was disappointed to learn that.

I was only kidding Gary

This was a good week overall, I didn't have to manically grab the phone and call my broker LOL. Martingaling also would not work in craps or blackjack, considering our playing capital, unless you are in the Sahara Casino playing $1 Blackjack, but then you'll have to put up with some drunken cowboy falling asleep next to you and falling on your shoulder every time he doses off, it did happen to me man

4re · Jul 29, 2006

Quote from romik:

I was only kidding Gary This was a good week overall, I didn't have to manically grab the phone and call my broker LOL. Martingaling also would not work in craps or blackjack, considering our playing capital, unless you are in the Sahara Casino playing $1 Blackjack, but then you'll have to put up with some drunken cowboy falling asleep next to you and falling on your shoulder every time he doses off, it did happen to me man

I have been that drunk cowboy before many times. I didn't do very much gambling on this trip, maybe about an hour a day. This trip was more about doing the family stuff. I actually came out ahead in my gambling this time. I won maybe 400 bucks. Nothing to brag about but it is rare for me. When you daytrade the futures market gambling isn't much fun anymore...

I know you were kidding... Have a good weekend.
Gary

Buy1Sell2 · Jul 29, 2006

Quote from romik:

Most daytraders do not have sufficient capitalisation for position trading and the idea of buying and holding 1 contract for a period of 2 weeks (let's say) does not offer enough reward. Most daytraders are lured into daytrading by small margins and the mentality is that I can afford to trade more lots, therefore I can make more per every tick, fair enough if one uses a proven methodology with solid position/money management, but unfortunately that is not the case, as I see it across the board. Not to mention that an overextended position can wipe out a trader in a matter of seconds, these oscillations do happen and we have seen them before. So many guys will enter into trades based purely on their expectations of what's about to happen. Their system should provide probability calculations, but they seem to go for their personal expectations most of the time " I HOPE THAT" etc...and lose eventually or continue posting as they simply pretend trading real money, as no emotion is shown after consecutive losses and/or their capital is the size that an oil baron would have LOL. Daytrading is only for highly disciplined people who play by hard rules set in their methodology (99% of the time).

I agree. I chalk most of the allure of daytrading up to the human need for instant gratification and impatience. It is of course, patience that is the trait of the most successful traders. While the daytrader feels that they control losses quickly, they generally just lose the account in dribs and drabs but have a higher probability of failing. I am very happy to have discerned the difference between the two types of trading and feel very very comfortable with my trading at the longer term level. Someone mentioned that they could not sleep at night holding positions. Well, I have trouble sleeping if I am trying to figure out the market's next intraday moves. It's so intensive etc.

romik · Jul 29, 2006

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

I agree. I chalk most of the allure of daytrading up to the human need for instant gratification and impatience. It is of course, patience that is the trait of the most successful traders. While the daytrader feels that they control losses quickly, they generally just lose the account in dribs and drabs but have a higher probability of failing. I am very happy to have discerned the difference between the two types of trading and feel very very comfortable with my trading at the longer term level. Someone mentioned that they could not sleep at night holding positions. Well, I have trouble sleeping if I am trying to figure out the market's next intraday moves. It's so intensive etc.

Yes, it was me who said that, I still do not feel 100% confident in holding a position after-hours. Daytrading is a skill that is to be mastered, just like positional. I can post trades on daily basis and will be in profit EOD 4 out of 5 days on average. But generally speaking you are correct, I don't think anybody would argue.

Buy1Sell2 · Jul 30, 2006

Looking at the daily chart , it appears to me that we have a very good potential at testing the upper range of this is market in the high 1320's. (not Monday, but soon). The next few days will tell if this has enough legs to do that or it wil reverse from this "bounce". I still believe that the market will end the year down though.

Tanstaafl · Jul 31, 2006

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

I have been able to get my trading down to a bare minimum of trades which is the way that I like it. Doing the day trading in this journal has reinforced the view that I held before, which is that longer term trading (other than intraday) is the way to trade. There are more opportunities of course day trading, but you have to constantly be attentive to the screen etc. I prefer the longer method much more as I've said before as it gives more time for analysis as well as povides a higher quality of life--and for me anyway more profits as I miss many intraday chances because I am not watching it. I hope that along the way that daytraders reading this may also come to this realization and become more successful and balanced.

I agree with you and think that one day I can too move on to the position trading. For now I sure hope it doesn't mean that you are going to close this great journal. There are so few interesting and useful journals here on ET.

Buy1Sell2 · Jul 31, 2006

Quote from Tanstaafl:

I agree with you and think that one day I can too move on to the position trading. For now I sure hope it doesn't mean that you are going to close this great journal. There are so few interesting and useful journals here on ET.

Thank you for the nice comments! No I will not be closing the journal, I'm just moving the trading to what I consider to be a better route for me. Others may continue to post daytrading analysis as I still find the postings very very interesting!

murray t turtle · Jul 31, 2006

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Looking at the daily chart , it appears to me that we have a very good potential at testing the upper range of this is market in the high 1320's. (not Monday, but soon). The next few days will tell if this has enough legs to do that or it wil reverse from this "bounce".

I still believe that the market will end the year down though.

===================
Buy1sell2;
Does look like the rally may have some more nice up moves;
maybe to 1313, [double fibo number ] at least maybe this this week.

Likely could be downtrend from there.