ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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my little evil prediction for today: equity indices will really start tanking at around 3:00pm EST when the bond market closes.

we shall see... :D
 
for this macro cycle, remember time is the enemy of this market, as long as full disclosure is not made, about all the structural problems, intermittent land mines and disclosures will pull the market down, it could be a long drawnout process, if only the banks, and investment houses would come to full disclosure we could put this behind us, and build a base, eventually if the theme of intermittent disclosures continues, then we should test under 1000...in spooz.
 

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Quote from blackchip:

Very smelly at this point. Needs a thorough cleaning. :D
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The first step in a bull market is the selling climax, which cleans out the weak longs (big money AND retail) who should have sold earlier, when there were clear signs of distribution. Smart money (big money AND retail) sees what's going on, and starts to accumulate merchandise for the upcoming mark-up.

Of course, most get the whole thing backwards, buying when they should be selling, and selling when they should be buying, or buying too early, and selling too late.
 
Spectre wrote:
"for this macro cycle, remember time is the enemy of this market, as long as full disclosure is not made, about all the structural problems, intermittent land mines and disclosures will pull the market down, it could be a long drawnout process, if only the banks, and investment houses would come to full disclosure we could put this behind us, and build a base, eventually if the theme of intermittent disclosures continues, then we should test under 1000...in spooz.
"

"would come to full disclosure?"

my question:
Isn't the real problem here: no one really knows what a realistic value for these subprimes is?

we all know, markets hate uncertainty, and this is the epitome of uncertainty.

They can't make a full disclosure because there is no market for the securities. They don't know what the instruments held are worth.

even conforming mortgages sold to raise capital are not attracting fair value prices which is (isn't it? ) the reason why mortgage rates have gone higher despite the attempts to flood the system with liquidity.

Am I misinterpreting this?
 
Big Vol always leads to big moves.....perhaps historical moves like a St Pattys day collapse...........or another bullshit temporary V bottom to prolong the inevitable.

i don`t think anyone out there knows just how serious this problem may be............so put on your jock straps & youth supporters for this day of welcomed vol.......could be big business.
 
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