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ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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from 69 to 40
That was one heck of STORM drain.
900 ?
You will see S & P go to positive territory sometime this year.
That was one heck of STORM drain.
900 ?
You will see S & P go to positive territory sometime this year.
Quote from JSSPMK:
ImO this night is worth staying up for
Best to all!
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1801635>
Three lower highs, yes, but also three higher lows.
IOW, the markets have been in congestion, and we are at this point at what looks to be the apex.
Bear market rallies are usually longer than this. The longer the rally, the more fuel for the fire on the downside. This rally has not been long enough.
If we go down now, a double bottom and strong rally are likely, and that would not be consistent with a bear market.
The bulls WANT a retest. They want the pain to be quick and sharp, like ripping off a bandaid. Fund managers make money when people are putting money in, not taking it out. They want to go back and buy stocks, so the cycle can start over again. They've got mortgages, second mortgages, credit card bills, and bad real estate investments to pay off.
This congestion is irritating to them. They want this bear to have one last lunch before going back into hibernation. They want to put some money to work.
Since when does the market give the people what they want?
It would make more sense to hit 1420, even 1450, and to do so by April. That would stop out long-term bears (like B1S2?). The trend would be "up". The bear market would be over, so the story would go.
And then the pain would come.
If we hit 1420, I'll be scaling into put time spreads, and waiting.
the sky is falling
bears screaming for 900
but what do i see
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku...._analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_b
couple that with current option interest and you get a move to 1390 - 1410 coming to a S & P chart near you soon.
:eek:
bears screaming for 900
but what do i see
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku...._analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_b
couple that with current option interest and you get a move to 1390 - 1410 coming to a S & P chart near you soon.
:eek:
Quote from smilingsynic:
Three lower highs, yes, but also three higher lows.
IOW, the markets have been in congestion, and we are at this point at what looks to be the apex.
Bear market rallies are usually longer than this. The longer the rally, the more fuel for the fire on the downside. This rally has not been long enough.
If we go down now, a double bottom and strong rally are likely, and that would not be consistent with a bear market.
The bulls WANT a retest. They want the pain to be quick and sharp, like ripping off a bandaid. Fund managers make money when people are putting money in, not taking it out. They want to go back and buy stocks, so the cycle can start over again. They've got mortgages, second mortgages, credit card bills, and bad real estate investments to pay off.
This congestion is irritating to them. They want this bear to have one last lunch before going back into hibernation. They want to put some money to work.
Since when does the market give the people what they want?
It would make more sense to hit 1420, even 1450, and to do so by April. That would stop out long-term bears (like B1S2?). The trend would be "up". The bear market would be over, so the story would go.
And then the pain would come.
If we hit 1420, I'll be scaling into put time spreads, and waiting.
TY for the post!
To me your reasoning does make sense, but 240, the way I view it, points to downside which confirms failure swings on the daily chart. Yes, I see what you mean when you say that there are also 3 higher lows and of course it can BO rather than BD. I hope you would understand when I say that I have to go with method that I use & not go against it. I did see what AS has posted & what you are saying, unfortunately on this occasion I see a BD based solely on technicals, again the way I view it. Anyway, we'll see what happens, I am not stupid when it comes to asserting realistic expectations when powers that be may have other agendas at critical points in time.
Best to all!
Triangles and pennants are nothing but pauses in a trend.
Trend has been down, based on price action, trend should resume to the downside after this pause.
This time this is supported by technicals and fundamentals.
On top of that, I don't recommend taking a triangle breakout against the dominant trend, most of the times, they are short lived and end up being fakes.
Anek
Trend has been down, based on price action, trend should resume to the downside after this pause.
This time this is supported by technicals and fundamentals.
On top of that, I don't recommend taking a triangle breakout against the dominant trend, most of the times, they are short lived and end up being fakes.
Anek
I agree with JSS, we hit 1475 or so by april.
1600 by mid-year.then 2000 sometime in 2009.
I expect bullish action from here on out.
1600 by mid-year.then 2000 sometime in 2009.
I expect bullish action from here on out.
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