Yes and no. In case you've missed the fact - the market is composed of many different time layers, and is composed of fractals. There's a trend within a trend, which in turn is within an trend. There are at least 5 trends present at each given moment, while most people don't think about that when talking about "countertrend" or referring to the direction of "The Trend". They're talking about the main trend that they view, which might be a different one that you see.
A quick glimpse at the chart and I can elaborate more on that..
bullish on the multi-year chart
bearish on multi-month chart
bearish on multi-week chart
bullish on multi-day chart
I'm accepting trends visible in these different higher time frames as they display themselves as opposed to "outsmarting" the market. Then intraday, I construct support/resistance levels considering the combination of the above trends, e.g. the current market scenario, and I do try to anticipate turns, but only in 1/2-min charts and in the direction of the larger - intraday and/or multi-day - trend. The more trends align, the better, actually.
Since you're talking in multi-month perspective, I'd say there's too much hope in your vision. You could be right in multi-year terms, but the monthly and the weekly trends are down and most likely the new yearly highs will not come in the coming months. The markets can do anything and it is possible, but again - not as likely as other scenarios. So don't trade your hopes, trade the charts and the probabilities which present themselves. Stops are used in case the less probable scenario decides to present itself and it is normal to have that now and then. That's trading.
A quick glimpse at the chart and I can elaborate more on that..
bullish on the multi-year chart
bearish on multi-month chart
bearish on multi-week chart
bullish on multi-day chart
I'm accepting trends visible in these different higher time frames as they display themselves as opposed to "outsmarting" the market. Then intraday, I construct support/resistance levels considering the combination of the above trends, e.g. the current market scenario, and I do try to anticipate turns, but only in 1/2-min charts and in the direction of the larger - intraday and/or multi-day - trend. The more trends align, the better, actually.
Since you're talking in multi-month perspective, I'd say there's too much hope in your vision. You could be right in multi-year terms, but the monthly and the weekly trends are down and most likely the new yearly highs will not come in the coming months. The markets can do anything and it is possible, but again - not as likely as other scenarios. So don't trade your hopes, trade the charts and the probabilities which present themselves. Stops are used in case the less probable scenario decides to present itself and it is normal to have that now and then. That's trading.
