ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

4re · Jun 29, 2006

Quote from romik:

Inexperienced/amateur traders believe the market performs in a rational manner and that bad news=lower price. IMO that's an easy trap to fall into especially on FOMC days. Why go short if the anticipated .25 raise has been priced in already and that's what actually happened.

I totally agree. The way I do trade these days is that I had a sell stop set at 1263 just in case it went down that was about 2 points away from the range we were in. It never triggered so I didn't trade it at all. I just let the market sweep me in if it is going to happen. But I would not ever place my order before because tha is a dangerous gamble.

4re

Tanstaafl · Jun 29, 2006

Quote from romik:

Inexperienced/amateur traders believe the market performs in a rational manner and that bad news=lower price. IMO that's an easy trap to fall into especially on FOMC days. Why go short if the anticipated .25 raise has been priced in already and that's what actually happened.

I think that some people went short anticipating not .25 but .50 increase in rates and got caught.

TraderRobb · Jun 29, 2006

Yep, no rational, just a continuation of the previous day. Use short term signals such as the 5 min for the breakout.

romik · Jun 29, 2006

Quote from Tanstaafl:

I think that some people went short anticipating not .25 but .50 increase in rates and got caught.

their crystal ball needs a service in that case

EDIT: there are other ways to trade these days and it has nothing to do with "I think this will happen". Also, one needs a very robust data feed, it is not a rare occasion for trading platforms experiencing data freezes/scrambling at times like this.

PitchBlack · Jun 29, 2006

Quote from Tanstaafl:

I think that some people went short anticipating not .25 but .50 increase in rates and got caught.

Never anticipate. Anticipation is based on your opinion. unfortunately your opinion is worthless. It is the opinion of the market that counts. That opinion is reflected by the prices.
So trade the quotes that you see, not the quotes that you think will come soon, because soon might also be never.

Spooz Top · Jun 29, 2006

B1S2.................guess you still have those babies?(50.25`s)

great call as usual.

sosa1974 · Jun 29, 2006

No trades for me. Moved too fast for me to react. I will short @ market close.

BoyBrutus · Jun 29, 2006

Quote from sosa1974:

No trades for me. Moved too fast more to react. I will short @ market close.

I like this trade, but what's got me confused is the end of quarter buying. Do you or anyone else expect it to continue tomorrow?

What about waiting for the Dax open to short? I expect world markets are going to give some lift in the globex session

sosa1974 · Jun 29, 2006

Quote from BoyBrutus:

I like this trade, but what's got me confused is the end of quarter buying. Do you or anyone else expect it to continue tomorrow?

What about waiting for the Dax open to short? I expect world markets are going to give some lift in the globex session

Im not going to chase a run up like this. You miss one side its ok. Just be patient and wait for the other side. I'll hold this one till the sept expiration if need be. Too much short covering right now, so the close around 4:15 p.m. should be a safe entry point.

hpeganz · Jun 29, 2006

Quote from sosa1974:

Im not going to chase a run up like this. You miss one side its ok. Just be patient and wait for the other side. I'll hold this one till the sept expiration if need be. Too much short covering right now, so the close around 4:15 p.m. should be a safe entry point.

where will be your stops?