ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Most of my trading has been changed to swing trading, over the past 6 months, my low back issues have been acting up, if I sit too long, I pay a price for it in the days following.
My participation will get less and less, unless something excites me in the markets.
If you pm me with a request on boundaries for trading a specific day, I will see what I can do, and record the vid of it.(ie trade 1 lot with a 3 point stop)
The longest continous vid I have been able to record has been 4.5 hrs.. using camtasia, not sure if its a built in max or a cache limit on the comp.
I will be in the Caymans in Feb, looking at financial structures there.
I'm expecting the market to churn in these zones most of the year, and in the summer to mount a rally for a anticipated resurgence from FED stimulation.
That downward trendie off the peaks is very crucial, a break of it will mean technically the market is done basing.
My participation will get less and less, unless something excites me in the markets.
If you pm me with a request on boundaries for trading a specific day, I will see what I can do, and record the vid of it.(ie trade 1 lot with a 3 point stop)
The longest continous vid I have been able to record has been 4.5 hrs.. using camtasia, not sure if its a built in max or a cache limit on the comp.
I will be in the Caymans in Feb, looking at financial structures there.
I'm expecting the market to churn in these zones most of the year, and in the summer to mount a rally for a anticipated resurgence from FED stimulation.
That downward trendie off the peaks is very crucial, a break of it will mean technically the market is done basing.
Technically we have about two more weeks of downside before a significant rally can take place. At the moment this view seems to fit the fundamental outlook...
The way B1S2 trades does not require great capitalization.Quote from princessa:
i understand what you are trying to do and applaud you if you can do it well. if you expect the market to go down, which i think we all did, it makes sense to ride it out this way. but it's simply difficult for me to get my mind around holding a futures trade that long. maybe b/c i'm relatively new at it and not holding multiple millions of dollars in accounts. i think if you had so much money that the rises and falls were just a pittance and you traded just for fun, then it wouldn't seem so bad.
in reality, your way may work, but with the capitalization level of most traders, it would seem a bit scary. i know it is to me. i think smaller traders would rather do day trades, taking small losses and racking up small to medium-sized gains rather than going for the whole enchilada.
It requries great skill at reading the longer-term charts and/or great skill as a position trader, and medium term capitalization.
From most of his posts that I've read, he only takes a 10-20pts stop out on his trades if he is proven wrong. On the ES that's about $500-$1,000 at risk per contract. For any of the Notes (30 or 10 year), Ags (Corn or Wheat, for instance), Energies (Oil) or metals (Gold, Silver) that amount represents a max loss, and quite often he can risk substantially less to achieve his financial goals (add in the curriences, which he trades, and its a wrap).
Because of the time-frames involved he is able to trade a portfolio of futures/commodities in a focused and thoughtful manner, while also realizaing that, because of the diverse number of markets involved, he has a built-in risk management tool which makes it very unlikely for more than, say, two, maximum three positions to fail at the same time.
(to be continued)
A totally seperate issue is that of DAYTRADING.
In general, the shorter the time-frame, the less leverage required to trade the position, but the more skill required in being able to trade profitably.
Also, it requires greater attention, with there being a very high probability of missing a trade when you are trading multiple markets, not to mention that it is much more difficult to manage multiple intra-day trades across 3 or more markets, period.
I hope this clears up some of the issues that the posters have been putting to B1S2.
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In my opinion, daytrading is best done in markets where you have high probabilities to scalp for amounts of about $100 or so using an extremely high number of contracts (25 to 100), and you can do so everyday, at least once if not multiple times.
Longer term position trading is best done across multiple diverse markets where you can get medium to extended runs to make your money. While they initially require the trader to use less leverage to trade more conservatively, ultimately this type of trading can be extremely profitable, more satisifying and less time focus intensive than the daytrading/scalping.
To each his own, the most diverse method would be to combine both approaches, and use automation as well.
In general, the shorter the time-frame, the less leverage required to trade the position, but the more skill required in being able to trade profitably.
Also, it requires greater attention, with there being a very high probability of missing a trade when you are trading multiple markets, not to mention that it is much more difficult to manage multiple intra-day trades across 3 or more markets, period.
I hope this clears up some of the issues that the posters have been putting to B1S2.
***
In my opinion, daytrading is best done in markets where you have high probabilities to scalp for amounts of about $100 or so using an extremely high number of contracts (25 to 100), and you can do so everyday, at least once if not multiple times.
Longer term position trading is best done across multiple diverse markets where you can get medium to extended runs to make your money. While they initially require the trader to use less leverage to trade more conservatively, ultimately this type of trading can be extremely profitable, more satisifying and less time focus intensive than the daytrading/scalping.
To each his own, the most diverse method would be to combine both approaches, and use automation as well.
Part of it is that he doesn't look at the points so much as he does the conditions.
He looks for conditions to signal him that it's time to enter a Short, or Hold a Short; enter a Long or Hold a Long. If you're just focused on one market, yes what you're saying here makes sense. But when you are focused on multiple markets the way he trades, using the same criteria consistently across the board, is in his (and mine) honest opinion the best approach.
It's not about the money, profits/losses/commisisons etc. It's about the discipline involved in trading multiple markets using this approach. It has its own rhythm and is consistely profitable because this his how the financial markets move.
The size of certain accounts make daytrading inappropiate because of the costs involved. Actually I believe daytrading to be toughest and most expensive way to make money in the markets.
Kudos to those who can.
Kudos to those who can.
Here's a summary of the T Day theory and Rule of 20 as used to traded the YM:
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Quote from volente_00:
Summary
T day theory.
MWF short bias
T days long bias
Short the up spikes and gap ups on MWF.
Buy the gap down and down spikes on T days.
10:30 is a important time when trading
rule of 20 says YM moves in 20 point intervals, batches, porgies If market is trending down and you want to fade the move, wait go long when it drops 20 points fromt he previous low and if done properly you should be able to grab 8-10 ticks on the retracement.
If market is trending up wait for it to move 20 points over the previous high to short and then cover on the 10 point retracement.
requoting this as I missed this before, anyone know how long this theory has been around?
Article about Mandlebrot:
http://www.safehaven.com/article-2729.htm
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Quote from volente_00:
Summary
T day theory.
MWF short bias
T days long bias
Short the up spikes and gap ups on MWF.
Buy the gap down and down spikes on T days.
10:30 is a important time when trading
rule of 20 says YM moves in 20 point intervals, batches, porgies If market is trending down and you want to fade the move, wait go long when it drops 20 points fromt he previous low and if done properly you should be able to grab 8-10 ticks on the retracement.
If market is trending up wait for it to move 20 points over the previous high to short and then cover on the 10 point retracement.
requoting this as I missed this before, anyone know how long this theory has been around?
Article about Mandlebrot:
http://www.safehaven.com/article-2729.htm
BS12 trading is longer term and requires a different mindset,scalping is really a tough way to make a living and mentally very exhausting when wrong,that mental exhaustion would take away from your ability to see clearly in the longer term trading, also when you sit and watch every tick you sometimes lose focus on the bigger picture
Yeah, you're right, it is.
But well worth it once you put together a decent system and have the discipline to trade it.
IMHO part of the problem is constantly wanting to back to the well once you've already had a good drink, that's my experience at least.
Good trading.
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