ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[Buy1Sell2]

Quote from romik:

You can see bearish divergence forming from around 9.30am, sorry about the poor chart, away at the moment.

I see what you are speaking of. I have determined on ES short term charts that the divergences need to look a bit stronger ie sharp pointed peaks and troughs. Those are the ones that sem to have a better opportunity especially if you can get the ol RSI failure swing.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Very good potential for a reversal downside here. I am not quite ready to short. I need to see some more confirmation.

 

[hardyards]

Has anyone run the stats probability of establishing the high or low of the day within the first 30 minutes?

 

[JimmyJam]

Quote from hardyards:

Has anyone run the stats probability of establishing the high or low of the day within the first 30 minutes?

Hey hardyards,

I hang-out at the S/R thread, but I keep my "ear to the ground" on this one also.

According to "The Openinbg Price Principle"
The Best Kept Secret on Wall Street
by Larry Pesavento & Peggy MacKay

"The probability of the high/low of the day being established in the first 30 min is approximately 70% (give or take)."

So it's a worthwhile strategey, sure. The thing is that's exactly what we had with yesterday's action (up, retrace approx 50%, then shoot for the stars), so now you have to ask yourself, "what is the probability of that happening 2 days in a row?

Probably more like oh, 20% - 25%.

Best,

Jimmy

P.S. But looking at yesterday's action, it obviously is a worthwhile strategy, and if you combine with the Divergence Trading (excellent technique for range bound days) that some of you guys seem to be so good at, you probably'd have a pretty good 1-2 punch.

... you'd just have to have your criteria in place for determining what sort of day you were looking at!

 

[sosa1974]

Quote from sosa1974:

Didnt go flat. Going to look to add above 1295 area if we get there. I have a feeling those numbers maybe be sand bagged. Anyway, Im obviously going to swing this.

Added @ 1292. Cover 1283, 18 points. Gap fade play. Still have the 1280 short. Also short NQ @ 1619. cover 1614. Damn that was nice.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Quote from sosa1974:

Added @ 1292. Cover 1283, 18 points. Gap fade play. Still have the 1280 short. Also short NQ @ 1619. cover 1614. Damn that was nice.

nice one!!

I am not in yet. I need more confirmation of downside here on the hourly chart.

There's an hourly RSI bearish divergence brewing with a sharp peak, but I need to wait until the bar ends.--Important for my strategy. Also the Histogram divergence is developing this hour as well.

 

[MiniDowTrader]

Quote from hardyards:

Has anyone run the stats probability of establishing the high or low of the day within the first 30 minutes?

Happens more often on the YM than the ES or ER. I think the opening 30-minute range breakout as a strategy on the ES has been traded away. But you might want to backtest it on the YM.
MiniDowTrader

 

[JimmyJam]

Quote from MiniDowTrader:

Happens more often on the YM than the ES or ER. I think the opening 30-minute range breakout as a strategy on the ES has been traded away. But you might want to backtest it on the YM.
MiniDowTrader

You're almost certainly 100% correct on that point MDT.

I think every "strategy" has been traded away on the ES!!

... and actually I don't think Larry uses it to trade the mini's (but hey, I could be wrong), I think he uses it trade a basket of stocks.

 

[hardyards]

Quote from MiniDowTrader:

Happens more often on the YM than the ES or ER. I think the opening 30-minute range breakout as a strategy on the ES has been traded away. But you might want to backtest it on the YM.
MiniDowTrader

Yes I agree ... just wondered if I was alone.
The ES is all about the procession of orders IMO.
Get it right and you are a rich man.
Get it wrong and you make someone else wealthy.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Short 2 units here in the short term account at 1288.25

No stop in place. If placing a stop , it would be well above the high of the day.