ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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I have absolutely no idea what's going on (intraday).

Does anyone consider this to be a dull intraday market?

I heard a quote once about dull markets and selling short.
 
Quote from mbusch:

Why would you expect it to rise to 42-43 before heading down?

The rapid decline you mentioned went roughly from 44 to 37. It then retraced to about the 50% point, which is the most likely retracement. If there's another leg down, don't you think it's most likely from current levels (40-41)?
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Exactly, but I am playing super safe today. Only 110% trades are being taken. I like my capital. And yes I doubt it will reach 4 -43 on this leg. More likely it will go down from 41 level to 36.
 
Quote from Mins:

I wonder if you can guys can tell me your how you approach profit targets daily / weekly / monthly.

I read something yesterday that applied to me, i have had only 1 losing day this month (arbitrary loss of -$150) which is minor.

However, my target has been to average 4 ES points daily and hence 20 ES weekly. This is not per contract, so the target is relatively simple to achieve most days.

Problem is that because i was winning and actually averaging 9 ES per day and 4-5% capital gains weekly (again not per contract - my contract size varies from 1-6 contracts, 4-6 rarely used unless very high probability win), that eventually i was going to have a losing day - chase the loss and again try to end up with a winning day.

This came true yesterday, with a minor loss in the morning affecting my whole psychological balance - i was determined to stay disciplined but unfortunately i could not. Ended up getting chopped for a loss of $1500 until afternoon.

Luckily, and i say luckily that i regained most of this loss with the last blast upwards in the afternoon.

My question is of consistency; losses are inevitable in this game - how do you guys approach your targets. Do most try to do what i do - make small gains each and every day or do you accept that some days will be losers and go for a few home runs each month.

I feel i am in for a massive down day - by which i mean 2-3 grand as due to my consistency approach - as represented my my performance yesterday that i am finding it harder and harder to lose on any given day.

Is my approach foolish or is the consistent results proving i am on the right track? Any thoughts and advice will be welcome.

:(
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Nice post, showing the thought processes we go through every day in our attempt to achieve greater and greater successes (is that a word?) in our trading.

There are two (er, three) ways to approach it:

1. Try to control your profits and losses, getting incremental gains everyday and giving back very little (think of it as being able to move the ball on the ground, but not much of an air game) - it is that season after all GO GIANTS!.

2. Going for maximum gains with every trade ... this is obviously more along the lines of (the old) Peyton Manning super quarterback style of trading, thing is you're going to get hit a lot.

3. Going for the middle path, moving on the ground when you can, taking to the air when the opportunity arises - yeah, the man, big daddy himself, Tom Brady.
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In terms of points, if you're averaging 10 pts ES, per contract, per week, or anything close to that, and have an effective money management system in place, you're going to make a mint in no time.

Good trading,

JJ

P.S. Oh yeah, almost forgot to mention. Trading is the most absolutely individualisc thing you can do (except for maybe the triathlon), one man's mana from heaven is another man's (or woman's) poor house ... good luck figuring out who you are.
 
Quote from smilingsynic:

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My best single day in August is more than I am going to do in three weeks in September. Does that make me a worse trader now when compared to then?
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This is why daily/weekly/monthly PROFIT targets are detrimental. The market is dynamic and different every single day! The consistent trader adjusts daily to work within the indefinite number of dynamics. The ability to adjust (or not) is what makes the trader "better" or "worse" in comparison to some personal statistic.

Osorico :)
 
Thanks for the advice guys.

I have taken much consideration over the matter and have decided to get rid of my daily and weekly targets - as you guys said, the markets are dynamic. Hence, with daily targets this forces me to make trades to meet the quota when probability of winning is lower.

I will try to formulate a new system which is more robust and allows me to let winners run without messing up my targets.

Thank you for all the advice, it was much appreciated.
 
Quote from JimmyJam:


In terms of points, if you're averaging 10 pts ES, per contract, per week, or anything close to that, and have an effective money management system in place, you're going to make a mint in no time.
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If you can do half that you are guaranteed to be a multimillionaire.
 
Quote from vertigo3:

I have absolutely no idea what's going on (intraday).
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Come on guys, it is bouncing between the Bollinger bands (5 times so far) as I predicted 5 hours ago. Consolidation, the easiest and safest to play.... :)

P.S: I also mentioned in the chatroom that one can play the W %R alone, without using a chart...
 
Quote from Pekelo:

Come on guys, it is bouncing between the Bollinger bands (5 times so far) as I predicted 5 hours ago. Consolidation, the easiest and safest to play.... :)

P.S: I also mentioned in the chatroom that one can play the W %R alone, without using a chart...
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Yeah, the paper trading genius is right on this one.

Hope you got your Shorts in Sax.

JJ
 
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