ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from satchel:

Is this the part where we head over to the 'Simulated P/L 2007" thread?
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I was permanently banned from that thread for what they accuse as lying on my part. :D
 
Well, it was a decent day of quick in-and-out scalps, but sadly no homeruns.

Here's a comparison of ES charts for Monthly, Weekly, Daily, and Hourly. Note the significance of the 1528.50 support level.

It doesn't take much imagination to visualize what happens if 1528.50 is breached to the downside.

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1617308 width=600>

Click on link below for full-size chart.
 

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Quote from mbusch:

You realize, of course, that we all could be right (in the long run). :)
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yes, dude, i thought of that.

that seems to be how the pundits do it. they stay quiet while they're wrong, then spring out when they're (ultimately) right and say, see, i told ya!!!:D
 
Here is some simple analysis currently on the market. Lots of different opinions lately on the journal.... which is apparent in the price action the past few days.

All in all these are 2 levels where the market will most likely make its deciscion. I am currently position short with selling atm vertical call spreads, short es futures as well as the stocks I posted a few days ago. The R:R favours the downside in a big, big way. That is how I trade, small ass stops and massive profits.
 

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Quote from smilingsynic:

"Engineer" is a good word here in this context. Yes, the goal it would seem is to trap shorts, and/or to encourage weak longs to bail, just in time for Tuesday's reports. A strong down move here would go against the general accumulation/distribution waves of the market.
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another incredibly insightful thought from the synic.

i'm with ya, dude. we'll see how it pans out....
 
markets trend can still be preserved, even if it falls to the bottom of this channel.

AH trading should tic them up, as Asia/Europe wakes up to about 1:30am EST time, then market could spike down before US open.
 

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Quote from Spectre2007:

markets trend can still be preserved, even if it falls to the bottom of this channel.

AH trading should tic them up, as Asia/Europe wakes up to about 1:30am EST time, then market could spike down before US open.
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notice how the verbiage changes based on market action, analysis of verbiage on the forum implies market should test the 1515-18 zone before nonfarm payrolls.

if nonfarm payrolls doesn't come in weak as expected, it could imply Bernie is done with easing. Which can be construed as the market needs to selloff to remove premium.

if nonfarm payrolls comes in weak, it implies the next FOMC meeting will be another rate cut, and the same dynamics leading up to the last rate cut will take hold, market will spoof down, but the risk still lies with the shorts. So market could still retest the 1518 zone for spoofing and then ramp back up.

either way it seems 1518 has to be tested.
 
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