ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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bonds look like they want to rally.
turn
MS said he'll be back, and it sounds like soon.
I have no idea how many traders were "taken out." But I have to seriously question any method or strategy that leads one to blow out after an afternoon rally that was not even a two sigma move (at least based on weekly charts and the VIX).
What kind of leverage are people out there using?
you should work it backwards, figure 30 point is average SPOOZ day..
30 points should equal a 1% move in acount equity. Then calculate what 1% of your acct is, and derive leverage or futures contract numbers.
100,000 equity
1% = 1,000
30 x 50 = 1500 1500 is more then the 1% so the most you can trade is 1 spooz contract per 100K.
its all based on what you think the daily range will be.
10 x 50 = 500, 2 contracts...
then just wait for the bottom or top of the ATR on the dominant trend bias.
LOL, I'm still here, screen's are mildly green (believe me, I'll take it). Here's a comment I made on surf's journal.
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If I hadn't seen it, I wouldn't have beleived it could have happened. Pretty much the best arguement you'll ever see for only taking trades with the primary trend. [added note: the markets have been in a primary uptrend since Monday according to my charts]
It was 10 times worse than the drop back in feb 2007, at least with that one, the price action gave you some warning ... with this move, there wasn't any warning, just BLAM!, a 300pt-YM-move in like, 10 minutes.
Good trading,
Jimmy Jam
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Actually that was the most vicious move I've seen in the past ... 3.5 years of having my ass glued in the seat and my eyeballs on the screen.
If I hadn't seen it, I wouldn't have beleived it could have happened. Pretty much the best arguement you'll ever see for only taking trades with the primary trend. [added note: the markets have been in a primary uptrend since Monday according to my charts]
It was 10 times worse than the drop back in feb 2007, at least with that one, the price action gave you some warning ... with this move, there wasn't any warning, just BLAM!, a 300pt-YM-move in like, 10 minutes.
Good trading,
Jimmy Jam
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Appreciate the analysis but it is the leverage which draws traders to the futures game, and what you are doing here is effectively removing that component of the equation.
Most traders use anywhere from $2,000 to $5,000 per contract, ES, some guys go even lower with their performance bond for the YM.
Good trading,
JJ
this was for swing trading, playing the highs and lows in the ATR and vector of the dominant trend.
The implied volatility of S&P options, as measured by the VIX, was forecasting an extremely strong move. I can understand the shock if the VIX had been in the low teens, as it was back early this year. But the VIX has been in the mid-20's.
There was no simply excuse to be taken out by yesterday's move.
There was no simply excuse to be taken out by yesterday's move.
same story gets repeated...FED rally and then recession fears...as soon as the snow starts to fall, things will start looking gloomy, for the MM's this is the best time to redistribute while the sun is still out.
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