ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Well I didn't mean that I was lucky because the market pivoted there, it was more-so because I just got out of the shower, walked into my room, saw they took out the earlier AM highs, volume was higher indicating stops had been taken out, and less than a minute after I got short there was a big red bar on my screen.

About the trade though, I just trade by the style that I've seen others successful with. Its just a numbers game- I'd rather take 20 trades with a 25% probability and 10:1 or better risk/reward than 20 trades at 50% probability with a 2:1 risk/reward (arbitrary numbers here, I'm just trying to make the point). Its all easy on paper of course :D
 
Quote from john12:

lol my question does anyone on this board ever lose? it seems 95% of trades listed on this board win yet 98% of futures traders lose overall.
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Not all trades can be winners, but a trader can be a winner overall by cutting losses short, riding winners with full position on, and following predominant trend. Very very hard to lose big sums of money that way.
 
Quote from tommymoose:

Well I didn't mean that I was lucky because the market pivoted there, it was more-so because I just got out of the shower, walked into my room, saw they took out the earlier AM highs, volume was higher indicating stops had been taken out, and less than a minute after I got short there was a big red bar on my screen.

About the trade though, I just trade by the style that I've seen others successful with. Its just a numbers game- I'd rather take 20 trades with a 25% probability and 10:1 or better risk/reward than 20 trades at 50% probability with a 2:1 risk/reward (arbitrary numbers here, I'm just trying to make the point). Its all easy on paper of course :D
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Cool answer :)
 
Quote from john12:

lol my question does anyone on this board ever lose? it seems 95% of trades listed on this board win yet 98% of futures traders lose overall.
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There are a lot of folks who are getting stopped out in this thread with stops that are not chart defined. So yes, people are losing in this thread from time to time. The percentage of traders that lose is closer to 85%. (It is roughly 95% of daytraders that lose. )
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

There are a lot of folks who are getting stopped out in this thread with stops that are not chart defined. So yes, people are losing in this thread from time to time. The percentage of traders that lose is closer to 85%. (It is roughly 95% of daytraders that lose. )
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Have these stat's that people quote have any merit whatsoever? Is there any documented evidence of these stats somewhere? I know vendors love to quote them b/c they are selling the dream of being that 5% but I've never seen any real documented evidence of this stat that is so casually thrown around.
 
Quote from apex82:

Yes, if you look at the chart I posted yesterday describing 2 patterns that can lead to an explosive mood in each direction you will see it is very similar to the situation on the daily chart. Any weakness around these areas and you are going to see a very fast decline. However, if we continue to impulse to the upside new all time highs will be in place. I am waiting to see if we get a doji tomorrow which would set up a nice place to buy some puts for a low risk short once and if that LOD is taken out. Market is trading in a pivotal zone..... Great time to be on the sidelines and pounce when the oppurtunity presents itself.
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I guess we are heading to the new all time highs as we continue to impulse to the upside?? Not seeing any weakness; am I missing anything?
 
I took a beating in my yield curve play yesterday I put on before the report, so people do loose. Loosing is a part of the process, especially if your trade is gamblesque. Right now hedged between two equity indexes, one is loosing and the other is winning.

I'm looking at 14,000 as a possible stall point in equities in general, the jubilant sentiment is a major inefficiency that you can rape. It should presist for the week.

The FED minutes can change things, and MM's can use it to run some stops to the downside, but it should be short lived. As stated before, the premium build up would occur so MM's can get out based on how recession fears materialize. So we should swing around in this zone, for a bit.

I loose when:

1) gamble
2) place careless trades
3) am complacent
4) trading new markets
5) trading new concepts
6) going against the inefficiency/sentiment
7) extremely small stops
8) too much leverage
9) being stubborn
 
If you really think about the market, and price action and what the individual trader is up against, you might think twice before bringing your chips to the table.

The market will expose any psychological deficiencies, one has, the market and price is the most intelligent mechanism of anticipating the future. Your literally competing against the best brains in the world looking to part you from your money, they have more sensory awareness of the situation then you.
 
...class B bullish divergence at 7:30 ...36.50
....entry would be a later bar around 38....
...15 min chart.... target 9 points or 37+9...46
... i did not take this trade....
.... respect to all my teachers on this board... :0)
 
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