ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Quote from Buy1Sell2:
Paul Tudor Jones is not a counter trend trader at all. He may like finding the turns, but he is doing so in order to follow a new trend. A counter trend trader is one who goes against the predominant trend, not to find the turns, but to pick up smaller sized gains on reversions to the mean. They acknowledge that they are trading against the trend and they use profit targets for exits. This is just one example where traders misunderstand the meaning of trend and countertrend traders. I have no interest in counter trend as it requires quite a bit more work with watching prices etc. Once I get in, many times I don't look at a market for several days again. This is the beauty of trend trading.
Surely the timeframe the trader is working with defines the trend.
I could say the same thing, i go against the daily trend which may be up all day to follow the new trend down.
I thought the market is built from mini fractals to major fractals depending on the time frame. Your trend and my trend might be completely different based on the timeframes we trade.
Paul Tudor Jones is contrarian and has said so many times. I did quote that he picks bottoms and tops based on swing trades.
A lot of you might think trend trading is the be all to end all but i seriously expect more from trading - i don't want to be a laggard. As for not looking at charts all days - well that would take any enjoyment out of this game for me - i might as well stick to my other business full time if i had to do that.
You are confusing trade entry with trade management. They are separate.
Management is more important in the long run than being either "trend" or "countertrend". From what I have seen here, your success in trading is attributable to your discipline in using stops to get in and to lock in gains. Some use stops for entry but not for exit; some use limit orders for entry and then use stops to lock in gains; some never use stops at all. I would go as far as saying that the whole countertrend-versus-trend trading debate is really all about placing stops.
Your philosophy on placing stops at a reasonably safe distance has been spot on, imo. You end up missing much of a move but, as you say, it is hard to lose large sums that way, and stops placed that way keep you in for the big moves.
Have a nice weekend.
Decision Tree Algo
1) Cut 50 Basis - buy buy buy, wait for a 20 point retrace, then buy buy buy
2) Cut 25 Basis - sell sell sell sell
3) No Cut = sell sell sell
4) Raise Rates = sell sell sell, and start screaming 'halleluyah, the world is ending!!'....run around the room 3 times, and sell sell sell again.
1) Cut 50 Basis - buy buy buy, wait for a 20 point retrace, then buy buy buy
2) Cut 25 Basis - sell sell sell sell
3) No Cut = sell sell sell
4) Raise Rates = sell sell sell, and start screaming 'halleluyah, the world is ending!!'....run around the room 3 times, and sell sell sell again.
Nope, B1S2 isn't confused about anything. He's merely reaffirming a trading philosophy which can be used to make money on any security that trades, across any timeframe, guaranteed.
"Trend" and "Countertrend" traders are almost like to completely different schools of thought. For the trend traders, their success comes from positioning themselves to catch the waves of movement which price action takes as it moves through the cycles of supply and demand (either up=buying or down=selling).
However, incorporating the discipline required through trade management actually makes it very difficult to lose when trading regardless of the trading philosophy espoused.
Actually Porgie has it right on this one ... losses should be cut as quickly as possible, and entry should be made when another opportunity presents itself ... keeping lots of dry powder insures you'll have something in your gun when the right opportunity presents itself.
You too, studying the writings on the ES Thread and interacting with other traders makes it very difficult to NOT succeed as a trader, and once a trader develops a style of trading that works for them, all they have to do is constantly refine it to increase their profitability/decrease their risk.
Good trading,
Jimmy Jam
edit: I forgot to add...do a cramer impression,...at the end of sequence of number 4...Nuts!!!' They know nothing!!!..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2eaMj1DPI6U
will go down as another impression to learn form 'Wallstreet' movie.
Quote from Buy1Sell2:
Paul Tudor Jones is not a counter trend trader at all. He may like finding the turns, but he is doing so in order to follow a new trend. A counter trend trader is one who goes against the predominant trend, not to find the turns, but to pick up smaller sized gains on reversions to the mean. They acknowledge that they are trading against the trend and they use profit targets for exits. This is just one example where traders misunderstand the meaning of trend and countertrend traders. I have no interest in counter trend as it requires quite a bit more work with watching prices etc. Once I get in, many times I don't look at a market for several days again. This is the beauty of trend trading.
B1,
I actually trade pretty similiar to you when I am trading long term. The only difference is that I am currently using options or leaps at this time instead of futures. Your commentary has kept me in my trades several times when I was thinking of taking profits. Many thanks to you for keeping this journal going.
Good trading to all,
Gary
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