buzzer went off
out at 55
done!
ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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buzzer went off
out at 55
done!
has trouble breaking through... 1436 retest again.
tic for tic movement of carry trade with spooz. Bots aligned themselves.
Yes , but at the moment, it can only be considered a short term bounce. The weekly needs to consolidate and show strength in my view. Right now, Monthly trend up, Weekly trend down, daily trend down. I believe that we will have another round of down or consolidation if you will first before a true reversal. That being said, I certainly see what you see and would not fault you for being long as of the close of business on Thurs 8/16 and still holding.
Thank you everyone for your responses in my absence.
As far as what signals I use to determine longer term trend, they are as follows:
1. Divergences
2. Grails (successively higher or lower RSI peaks/troughs)
Please review the 2 PM EST 60 minute bar that ended at 3 PM EST on 8/16 and you should be able to see why I felt the intraday longer term trend changed at that time and why I was expecting the move that we got. Using the reaction lows of the 1 minute or the 5 minute chart or the 60 minute for that matter, one would have been able to stay in the trade all the way.
As far as what signals I use to determine longer term trend, they are as follows:
1. Divergences
2. Grails (successively higher or lower RSI peaks/troughs)
Please review the 2 PM EST 60 minute bar that ended at 3 PM EST on 8/16 and you should be able to see why I felt the intraday longer term trend changed at that time and why I was expecting the move that we got. Using the reaction lows of the 1 minute or the 5 minute chart or the 60 minute for that matter, one would have been able to stay in the trade all the way.
Quote from Buy1Sell2:
Thank you everyone for your responses in my absence.
As far as what signals I use to determine longer term trend, they are as follows:
1. Divergences
2. Grails (successively higher or lower RSI peaks/troughs)
Please review the 2 PM EST 60 minute bar that ended at 3 PM EST on 8/16 and you should be able to see why I felt the intraday longer term trend changed at that time and why I was expecting the move that we got. Using the reaction lows of the 1 minute or the 5 minute chart or the 60 minute for that matter, one would have been able to stay in the trade all the way.
Before you had said: "Suffice it to say, that the trend was down all day Friday until the long signal at 3 PM EST which then allowed me to take long signals . Finally, I would tell you that we are currently in an uptrend today which can change at any time."
From this last quote I gather you are referring to Thursday not Friday--correct? I do not see any bar on Friday at 3 PM EST that would have kept me in a long position. Also, with your trend system are you long or short at the moment?
Thank you, DMartin
if you think about the trade, anytime there is a significant discount to current price...10 points or more, buying will come in and support the market, since large whales wont be able to cover once the news is released.
so the MM's are running stops and buying it back, but as soon as the rate cut annoucement is in, these players will need to offload on the spike. Then the R:R shifts in favor of the shorts, since that is the only major risk in the market.
The days following the rate cut, prices should fall apart to test 1380 again. Its a classic trade.
The last 30 minutes of trading is only risk free point for the shorts till the rate cut. Plus hours when the FOMC is asleep. So stop runs to the downside will apt to occur more in afterhours.
Chris
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