ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Down Tuesday Option expiration week.

I will be looking for additional downside RTH tomorrow.

Target 1409.25 for reversal. Have to see intraday technicals then.

Obviously, price data between now and tomorrow might change things, but down Tuesday of option expiration easily leads to washout Wednesday and some sort of recovery.

Good trading to all.
 
Quote from mbusch:

You may just have been lucky. :)

AH should be interesting.
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I was thinking unlucky but we will only know as time goes on since I think we are close to the bottom of this current liquidity crisis.
 
ok class why do you think vol was lower today?there are a few reasons but the 2 main ones i think are ok we've already plunged and risen 6 or 7 times and many people are getitng tired of it so the excitement of buying the dip is lessoning plus many people are getting stuck and they're out of the game hence lower vol. another big reason i suspected today would be a big down day is the slow speed of the decline most of the day. if you noticed you rarely saw the futures tanking or skying 3-5 pts in 20 seconds so today was a day were they really hit the bottom fishers harder. and another reason is people are stepping back saying"hey this is getting serious i better be more careful" hence not as much bottom fishing. we have to be on the lookout for a huge watershed decline to short term end the downturn. panic is starting to build and could result in that watershed move
 
Quote from apex82:

I have to agree if they can hold this zone overnight and into tomorrows RTH an explosion to the upside will occur... However, If this zone does not hold look for a violent move to the downside to 1425-1430.
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Apex, is this number ES or cash ?
 
Quote from joeyata1:

ok class why do you think vol was lower today?there are a few reasons but the 2 main ones i think are ok we've already plunged and risen 6 or 7 times and many people are getitng tired of it so the excitement of buying the dip is lessoning plus many people are getting stuck and they're out of the game hence lower vol. another big reason i suspected today would be a big down day is the slow speed of the decline most of the day. if you noticed you rarely saw the futures tanking or skying 3-5 pts in 20 seconds so today was a day were they really hit the bottom fishers harder. and another reason is people are stepping back saying"hey this is getting serious i better be more careful" hence not as much bottom fishing. we have to be on the lookout for a huge watershed decline to short term end the downturn. panic is starting to build and could result in that watershed move
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You complaining about 6-8 point spikes in 5 minute intervals ?

Low volume indicates retail selling.
 
Quote from apex82:

I have to agree if they can hold this zone overnight and into tomorrows RTH an explosion to the upside will occur... However, If this zone does not hold look for a violent move to the downside to 1425-1430. I am looking for a move to continue to the downside due to my gut and having traded these long term trend changes a lot... A way to know that the market is holding would be a 15min reversal bar in tomorrows RTH after testing this zone or a bit higher. I would change my bias heavily to the long side if this happens.
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Crystall ball still working better then ever... No reversal bar in the zone... therefore expected move to the downside to 1430-1425. It had a perfect role reversal which displays the key importance of the level which earlier seemed like butter.

Market has just hit 1428 as I am writing this... just 3 freaking points away from my 1425-1424 target that I have been looking for to exit more of my shorts posted the day before the selloff.

A lot of you thought I was crazy talking about this massive decline that will put all others in the past 4 years to shame. But I nailed it big time.

Profit on this exit will be approximately 125 points profit(per contract) traded with a 2 point stop..... one of the best trades I have ever made in terms of R:R and patience. You can never be to greedy when you know your right.

After this will still be holding a small piece for 1400 and last but not least 1345.


1422-1424 is SIGNIFICANT support. If it is tested and buying comes in then best to wait for a DB or some other type of entry that one employs and get in for a major ride to the upside. However, if it just cuts right through it best to stay on the sidelines and place low risk shorts.

Here is a visual of the breakdown of the critical zone and then the role reversal test following which led to the decline for the rest of the day.
 

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Quote from mbusch:

Closed out short at 1433.75 for +10 as momentum takes a pause here. May try to re-enter short higher for hold in AH.

EDIT: Short again from 1433.25. 6-tick stop.
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Carried short from 1433.25 into AH, closed out at 11:55pm ET at 1425.75 for +7.5, for a total of +17.5 on this downmove so far. May re-enter short higher in AH after retracement for one more trade (provided I'm still awake, which at this point seems questionable...yawn).
 
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