ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
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I wouldn't call 40 handles off the 1455 low a "limp", but I know exactly what you're saying Austin, most of the squeezes when the market is under duress are downright wacky... in the time it takes for you to move your mouse over a price in the dome it's already shot up 5 handles higher. This one was quite orderly with nice slow bull flags, very unorthodox.
I still think we'll bottom somewhere between the recent lows and 20 SPX points lower (Dow 13k is the obvious target); how it happens is for the market to play out - you simply can not predict how overleveraged positions get blown out of the market.
the first resistance zone couldn't be broken. Everything was available to them to break it, it implies lack of sponsorship by the bigwigs to knock it down to 60. And look what happened.
the 60 minute chart, and drawing up the major support and resistance zones, is the only thing needed. And the ability to not have a opinion is key.
so whats next?....
we are at major support on the charts, look for sponsorship and the 60 minute chart to continually print lower bars. If the 60 minute chart can't print lower bars, it implies another major support level has formed.
and the market will oscillate back to 96.
the high probability setups are after the fact, meaning a trend on the 60 minute bars has to form and be underway. Then probability is in your favor.
we are at major support on the charts, look for sponsorship and the 60 minute chart to continually print lower bars. If the 60 minute chart can't print lower bars, it implies another major support level has formed.
and the market will oscillate back to 96.
the high probability setups are after the fact, meaning a trend on the 60 minute bars has to form and be underway. Then probability is in your favor.
My view of 60 minute chart is bearish as F... 
if current support was indeed to be a major one, then I would have expected to see more of a bounce, all we got is a so-so hammer. They might take it up later tonight/tomorrow only to crush it to new current lows, ImO of course.
Longer term charts overall prevail and a correlated multi-day chart is bearish, it has to play out to the full before bears will see sense in switching sides.
if current support was indeed to be a major one, then I would have expected to see more of a bounce, all we got is a so-so hammer. They might take it up later tonight/tomorrow only to crush it to new current lows, ImO of course.
Longer term charts overall prevail and a correlated multi-day chart is bearish, it has to play out to the full before bears will see sense in switching sides.
look at the probability shifts in the trend, the trend held up pretty well till the 1st resistance zone, then it printed the first 60 minute bar lower high then tried to test resistance again and failed, and extended the 60minute bars with lower lows, and then from there the probability increases for a downward move to major support.
<i>"I wouldn't call 40 handles off the 1455 low a "limp", but I know exactly what you're saying Austin, most of the squeezes when the market is under duress are downright wacky... in the time it takes for you to move your mouse over a price in the dome it's already shot up 5 handles higher. This one was quite orderly with nice slow bull flags, very unorthodox.
I still think we'll bottom somewhere between the recent lows and 20 SPX points lower (Dow 13k is the obvious target); how it happens is for the market to play out - you simply can not predict how overleveraged positions get blown out of the market."</i>
I concur 100%. We didn't see one of those rocketship squeezes this time around, and a good percentage of the ascent came on overnight gaps up with nil volume. There was little ambiguity on how the lift got unraveled... windows were undressed with emphasis.
Just another 39-point intraday range in the ES. Business as usual these days :eek:
Not sure what the term "bottom" might mean... my expectations are for lots of sideways volatility trending lower. That could be periods of consolidation or correction off certain measures of support. Continual smashes to lower price levels as visible "support" levels vaporize is the behavior of bear market periods.
<b>erlewine</b>, I'd bet you've seen this all before. We also know that most active investors and traders (many found inside ET here) have never experienced six months of price action just like the past few weeks. Grinding sideways and smashing lower, over and over again. It'll happen like that again someday, sooner or later.
Until they blast shorts out of the water on at least two successive updays with volume and breadth, sideways to lower she goes. Days, weeks, months... who knows? We know what to look for when we see it. What was witnessed today is either a double-bottom low or signal for the next big surge lower.
In either event, it should be fun!
I still think we'll bottom somewhere between the recent lows and 20 SPX points lower (Dow 13k is the obvious target); how it happens is for the market to play out - you simply can not predict how overleveraged positions get blown out of the market."</i>
I concur 100%. We didn't see one of those rocketship squeezes this time around, and a good percentage of the ascent came on overnight gaps up with nil volume. There was little ambiguity on how the lift got unraveled... windows were undressed with emphasis.
Just another 39-point intraday range in the ES. Business as usual these days :eek:
Not sure what the term "bottom" might mean... my expectations are for lots of sideways volatility trending lower. That could be periods of consolidation or correction off certain measures of support. Continual smashes to lower price levels as visible "support" levels vaporize is the behavior of bear market periods.
<b>erlewine</b>, I'd bet you've seen this all before. We also know that most active investors and traders (many found inside ET here) have never experienced six months of price action just like the past few weeks. Grinding sideways and smashing lower, over and over again. It'll happen like that again someday, sooner or later.
Until they blast shorts out of the water on at least two successive updays with volume and breadth, sideways to lower she goes. Days, weeks, months... who knows? We know what to look for when we see it. What was witnessed today is either a double-bottom low or signal for the next big surge lower.
In either event, it should be fun!
spectre: what timeperiod do you use for your 60min chart?
this is the protracted decline we had last year. The price pierced the 200 day MA and oscillated around. During that period, we had constant war footage, of cities being bombed on the screen in lebanon. And sentiment was truely palpable and negative.
look at how the bars challenged each other.
look at how the bars challenged each other.
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