ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Should have a real nice short play tomorrow on INTC and BSC. I dont normally daytrade stocks but on gaps like these its "almost" free money. The first real good rally is a nice high probability short to get a retest of the lows and move lower. Im talking a .40-.55 rally in intel to start dipping short.

hogwarts... funny stuff mbusch.
 
Ill say it again for the 8th option expiration in a row now. The tuesday and/or wednesday of options expiration week are statisticaly one of the most volatile days of the month. We did not get one today. Odds call for some fireworks tomorrow and a trending day... Lets see how this baby opens up. This globex move might be a nice washout only to move up for the rest of the day. However, just from experience, this baby looks real and is occuring at prices among other indices that call for a massive decline. If we open around this 1545 level or lower I will be looking to sell the first rally up to 1555-1557 with a tight stop and hold for the remainder of the day if not weeks.
 
Quote from apex82:

Hogwarts... funny stuff mbusch.
More...
Wondered if you were a HP fan (not talking about your laptop)...should've known. :)

Added on to my short at 1549.25 with a 2-point stop.

As I type this at 1:20 am EDT, last paint is 1547.75, so I'm +5.5 on the initial position and +1.5 on the add-on.

I plan to stay in this trade overnight with tightened stops (so I can get a good night's sleep), but probably will be quick to exit in the morning (possibly via buy-stop reversal) because I imagine there's a strong possibility of a sharp fill-the-gap rally after RTH open, offering a good opportunity to re-enter short somewhere yesterday's RTH close. If RTH opens anywhere near where we are as I type this, that'd be a rule-of-10 rally to close the gap.

Treasuries (USU07) seem to be moving up smartly, as I expected. If equities tank, bonds could do very nicely, and maybe even give me the opportunity I've been waiting for to refinance my home mortgage below 6%. :)
 
Ah well, I'm stopped out of my Globex short at 1551.50 for net breakeven. (Profit on initial, loss on add-on, net wash.) ES has been grinding higher for over an hour, and the 3 am surge was the last straw.

Now flat, price is in no-man's land, so probably won't re-enter until I get some sense of direction. Possibly just stay out until RTH open.
 
At 04:45 EDT
L 1548.25
SS 1547.25 (1 point)
PT 1553.25 (5 points)

At 5:13 EDT last print 1550.75 (+2.5)

Beautiful reversal right at support at 1547.75, caught it right to the tick. Whether it goes anywhere remains to be seen.
 
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