ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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I have conflicting factors in the indices...

NQ looks ready to get slaughtered but ES and YM look like just a bit more upside before rolling over. Its tough to say at this point.. the NQ could obviously lead everything lower or vice versa.

I am anticipating a large swift correction but I am going to be patient. This correction should be 10% plus so there will be more then one oppurtunity to get on board.

I am starting to sell as I did on friday some of my long term stock positions and dabbing into some puts for some protection. I will be writing some call spreads as well. Large corrections can be tough to play with futures so I am waiting for the optimum entry point which I may not get... time will tell.
 
apex, for a large scale correction, you need sponsorship from higher end money pools who sense a macro shift occuring. The mood has decidedly turned bearish, on a intermediate term basis.

this run on the short stops is characteristic of some large money pool behavior before they gap it down. I expect 1460 on the cash.
 
Quote from Spectre2007:

apex, for a large scale correction, you need sponsorship from higher end money pools who sense a macro shift occuring. The mood has decidedly turned bearish, on a intermediate term basis.

this run on the short stops is characteristic of some large money pool behavior before they gap it down. I expect 1460 on the cash.
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I couldnt agree more. They need liquidity to sell into and fresh all time highs is how you are going to get it. I am looking for 1460 as well but more like 1420 or lower. Ultimate target would be 1250...
 
Quote from apex82:

I am looking for 1460 as well but more like 1420 or lower. Ultimate target would be 1250...
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Apex, what do you expect will happen with bonds during all this? Major "flight to quality" and anticipation of Fed loosening? If so, looks like US could rise to 110, and if it breaks through resistance there, to 114. (Now low 107s.)

On my 60- and 240-minute charts, RSI shows ES only marginally overbought (60) to not quite overbought (240), but NQ severely overbought (both 60 and 240) with RSI values at an unsustainable 82 and 78. This suggests that NQ may head south any time now (I'd be astonished if it didn't), with ES possibly lagging behind a few days. Last time NQ had RSI's this high, it declined 40 points over 5 days. Interestingly, there's an unfilled 4.25-point gap in the NQ almost exactly 40 points below where we are now.

I'm leaving on a 10-day trip first thing Thursday morning. I'd really hate to see this down-move happen when I'm unable to trade it. If we don't head south by Wednesday, I may have to play this with equity puts and possibly bond calls.

I took a small long position in ES Globex from 1558.00 with stop at 1556.25. Looking for 1563 overnight for 5 points. During RTH Monday, will probably be looking for a good entry to short NQ.
 
Quote from mbusch:

I took a small long position in ES Globex from 1558.00 with stop at 1556.25. Looking for 1563 overnight for 5 points. During RTH Monday, will probably be looking for a good entry to short NQ.
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Raised stop to breakeven at 1558.00.
Added on at 1560.00 on bull flag breakout with stop on add-on at 1559.25 (3 ticks)

Last paint 1561.50, +3.5 on initial and +1.5 on add-on.

PT1 at 1563.00

PT2 new contract highs at or above 1565.75
 
Quote from mbusch:

Raised stop to breakeven at 1558.00.
Added on at 1560.00 on bull flag breakout with stop on add-on at 1559.25 (3 ticks)

Last paint 1561.50, +3.5 on initial and +1.5 on add-on.

PT1 at 1563.00

PT2 new contract highs at or above 1565.75
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Taking PT1 here early at 1562.50 for +4.5 on initial long position.

Raised stop on add-on to 1560.50 and will be trailing up.

Looking to go short NQ.

EDIT: Closed out add-on at 1562.00 for +2

Short NQ small size at 2048.75, stop 2051.25 (2.5 points)
PT1 2041.75 (7 points)
PT2 2012.75 (36 points)
 
Targets Hit. Looking for longs.

Quote from 2006:

Long 1557.50/75 Targets @ 1561.50/61.75/62.00.

Then back down then back up to test highs and most likely new highs.

To put it plainly I'm looking for an A-B-C correction here.
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Quote from mbusch:

Short NQ small size at 2048.75, stop 2051.25 (2.5 points)
PT1 2041.75 (7 points)
PT2 2012.75 (36 points)
More...
Short ES small size at 1559.00, stop 1560.25 (1.25 points)
PT 1546 (13 points)
 
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