ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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I don't think the world is ending. Just some downward attempts. But limited in scope. The key is to watch for oversold conditions before attempting any longs.

The 200 day ma is usually tested before another significant momentum move up. If we head up before testing it, then the fall from the heights will be '87 like.

Because it will be a low relative strength move up.

The 200 day ma is at 1424 on cash.
 
We are in a short term downtrend within a long term uptrend at the moment. Only shorts should be taken on the shorter term swing trading basis. There is no way to know if this is the beginning of a longer term sell off. I will say this though-- The chart is "beginning" a rollover , which is much more indicative of a trend change than a 1 period down move. For example, take a look at the monthly SP chart from 87 era. There was never a Monthly rollover trend change --just a sharp sell off that provided buying opportunities. The long term uptrend never changed during 87. Now contrast that to the rollover that took about 8 months to develop at the beginning of this decade. THAT was a long term change in trend. This is why there were a lot of folks throwing in the towel at the bottom of the 87 crash when they should have been buying whereas a lot of professionals (and others) had plenty of time during the 3 yr downturn a few years ago to get out etc.
So , in summary, we are in a short term downtrend within a longer term uptrend. Is this the beginning of a long term downtrend?--- I have no way of knowing right now. :)
 
news projections about terrorism is pricing in extra premium to the downside.

market should sell off start of the week and possible resumption on the close friday july 6th.

either way downside risks are greater then upside.
 
the more emotion in a market the more volatile and range testing it does.

time dependent price escape, as a mental model of failure and success on a high probability intraday setup trade.

a modified open range system.
 

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As I have been saying for a week or 2 that the dailies are looking very bearish coinciding with very bearish seasonality... On the lower time frames its a H&S pattern but a Double top on the dailies however, its prudent to be on the sidelines or wait for the best possible low risk entry to protect your capital and maximize your gains. ABSOLUTELY nobody knows if this market is going higher or lower.. the only thing you as an individual can do is minimize your risk and stick your plan.

At this point I dont see any point at being short whatsoever unless you are already in from much higher prices. In order to trade a short properly at this point your stop would have to be huge... In my analysis the favour is to the upside because it offers the greatest probabilities and the best risk/reward. We have a very nice critical key zone 1501-1505 that was tested near the end of the day on friday. Buying came in a huge way. The next possible short term target is 1540 or much higher. Until this zone is broken to the downside I dont see any point at taking shorts unless you want to experience some volatile spikes against you probably shaking you out. If that zone is taken out I believe we are in for one serious correction. Until then.. I want to be long. Find the probable turning points that offer low risk entries... never chase the market. This way you are not a hero and get out asap with as little damage as possible and be patient for the next setup.
 

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Quote from jagmot:

I'm hoping for another small drop, have a buy order in for 1511.25 that I'm willing to hold over the weekend.

EDIT (2:52): Just moved buy order up to 1512.75 but still far off.
EDIT2 (3:06): Just filled, should have kept my original order, but that's ok. TP 1519.50
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I've placed a stop at 1515 to protect a small gain but I'm going to let the position have a chance to run (took of the limit sell at 1519.50). I'm liking that the futures are rallying even with another thwarted terrorist attack in the UK over the weekend.
 
Quote from jagmot:

I've placed a stop at 1515 to protect a small gain but I'm going to let the position have a chance to run (took of the limit sell at 1519.50). I'm liking that the futures are rallying even with another thwarted terrorist attack in the UK over the weekend.
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so you let that trade go 8 handles against you?

where was your stop on that,if there was one?
 
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