ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Since there remains a decided lack of postings, I'll post my fibs and pivots clusters again.
Yesterday, the first fib cluster (resistance) was 1525.50-1528.00, that proved to be pretty solid resistance.

Unfortunately, I didn't run these numbers until about 7:30, I don't want to be accused of post dating, that's just the way it is, the cluster of supports is 1513.50-1509.75, the ovenight low has been 1512.00.

Obviously, yesterday's fib cluster of resistance (posted yesterday on page 2310 in ES journal) is still 1525.50-1528.00, then 1533-1536.75.

Immediate intraday resistance is 1521-1523.75 (retracements of yesterday's intraday range).
 
Charly, most indicators are garbage.

the price action itself is the most important, the tic action. I generally adhere to a modified OR system, or 'line in the sand' system.

basically you pick a outlier point, s/r, and you stay long or short based on above or below. When you use volatility/support or resistance points/(only outliers). You avoid getting chopped at equilibrium point.

So you pick a outlier point and such as previous days high or low, or once the session progresses the days high or low based on a volatility move, and you just methodically reverse in and out as price crosses your point.

Based on volatility the price should move away from this point. The key is how much price travels away, and how much your pivot gets crossed whether a profit is determined.

edit: you can adopt this method on any timeframe. So the 1492-96 zone was a extreme outlier, and you should have engaged in a price battle in that zone. And if you look at how many times you would have gotten chopped and how fast price moved away.. you basically end up getting the jist of this system. Trendlines moving averages are basically used to determine where your going to pick your battle.

The problem comes in when you loose discipline and fortitude to keep fighting. Or once a loss limit has been hit for the day.

Okay the intraday outlier is 1528.00 and 1512.00, based on linear regression on the timeframe being used, you should pick a countertrend point as a outlier, since the trajectory is up from that 1492-96 zone, 1512 battle would be most prudent.
 
schematic of outliers and equilibrium zones by market profile.


edit: trendline at 1523 tic action try to break away from there.

some people adopt a time-based entry system. They pick a outlier, and say in 5 minutes I will go long or short based on price above or below.
 

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price is not giving reentries for the time being for longs.

edit: and its not letting the shorts capitalize.

bond yields broke through fomc levels, very positive for equities.

5.05% on ten year.


some targets for today. 1536


the price action is indicating computer programs or algo's are buying the market through everyones orders.

it could easily reverse at 1528

price torture using computers ... buying thousands of contracts hiddenly.
 
Quote from jagmot:

Long into the close @ 1519.75 1 contract
TP 1526.75
SL 1514.50 (at market open, don't want to be taken out with low volume)

*first post* been watching for the past month or so. Thanks for all the insights.

EDIT: Was thinking RIMM earnings would help nasdaq/market tomorrow and RIMM up 20 points in after hours.
More...

Didn't realize you can only edit upto 30 min after, out at 1526.75. +7 points

Will be looking to go long again at some point today.

EDIT 1 (10:16 EST) New buy order placed at 1524.25 if I can get it
 
since 1528 hit first.. price battle here.

1517 on duplicate vector trendline for retrace.

stay long above 1528 stay short below 28

the market is very dangerous for shorts/position players when 1492-96 area was tested and we reversed up. Usually the big buyer follows through with orderflow to take us to the other end of the range.
 
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