ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Not that I disagree, but why does it seem like sentiment in this forum changed to very bearish? I'm staring at my charts and I don't see how this dip is any different than the past 3+, but I'm also pretty inexperienced so if someone can explain why that'd be cool :)

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there is great deal of time left before any meaningful news will surface that can act as a catalyst.

since the market rose on decreasing volume, the highs were not credible. So the risk was that the market would succumb to profit taking.

since a great deal of people are still long this market, the institutions can run it down and break as many stops as possible.

plus the global interest rate environment is still hawkish, with the bond market testing monthly lows.

so if you think profits can improve substantially from here on, and the business cycle is still robust, then buying the market would be prudent, but at the same time you have to weather short term movements.
 
Quote from tommymoose:

Not that I disagree, but why does it seem like sentiment in this forum changed to very bearish? I'm staring at my charts and I don't see how this dip is any different than the past 3+, but I'm also pretty inexperienced so if someone can explain why that'd be cool :)

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For every buyer there is a seller... 2 down days into strong support in a bull market and everyone thinks were gonna crash.... The probabilities are still the upside.. take their panic as a treat and be a buyer anything around todays lows with a tight stop. If that is taken out then wait for 1526 (Sep contract), again with a tight stop. If that is taken out then wait for 1510-1513. We are at levels where new all time highs are a high probability. . I would not want to be short with the odds against me.. If you have to short, wait for a bounce and use risk management.... For the one time support doesnt hold in a situation like this it wont make up for the 75 other times that it did.
 
Quote from tommymoose:

Not that I disagree, but why does it seem like sentiment in this forum changed to very bearish?
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You're seeing firsthand the "wall of worry" that propels the market to new highs. It's when everybody's bullish that it's time to go short for "the big one."

Funny...five minutes before I read your post, I was looking at a daily chart of the ES on which I'd drawn pretty much the same trendlines as you did, and said to myself "odds are we're headed up from here." I don't look at the daily often enough, but it helps get things into perspective.
 
The 30 yr notes just hit the completion target as I am posting this at 108.. I will be adding more longs on reversal bars on the 60min and daily charts. At this point I am currently long with a tight stop below at 107 28/32.... fully aware that I will get back in if stopped out and buying comes in.

The first pink box would be the bare minimum first target from this zone.
 

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there is a clear trendline break out of that channel, the chart doesn't look as if support held.

edit: looking for support at the recent low below 1510 in the sep contract. If they manage to take out those lows, then the only meaningful support is the previous peak at 1480...area.
 
range expected 1512.50 -1522.50

true correction possibility wont emerge till post FOMC meeting. When the APPLE iphone euphoria is priced into the market. So the market is supported till FOMC.

the market has a high probability of rallying when the FED chooses to do nothing, since the market is changing expectations to a possible rate hike inline with other global central banks.
 
Sorry for the stupid question, today is the day to start trading September futures contracts right? Where can I find this information? I looked on cme.com but what I found was just settle dates.
 
I don't understand your question: "where can I find this information?". The Thursday in the week before quarterly futures expirations is always the rollforward (to the next quarterly contract) date. (the Thursday, 6 trade days ahead of the quarterly expiration is the date that the active contract becomes the next quarter's contract even though the June contract still trades until close of trade Thursday, June14, then on Friday Morning, there is a special settlement price based on an artificial value for the index (called the settlement price) which is calculated by using Friday's opening prices of the component members of the respective indexes to create a settlement price, those prices are based on Friday morning openings, hence all the big volume early in the RTH on Triple Witch Fridays as big money tries to "influence" opening prices of heavily weigthed components. I hope this wasn't overkill for you.
 
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