ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from Spectre2007:

it seems like another push to the downside is in order. The futures hardly budged, with asian strength.

some divergence, the us market might ignore asian indications even though futures may trickle up during these sessions, eventually they come back to reality by the time us opens. There still seems to be a correlation between european and us sentiment.
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What I have seen recently is that the important pre-market signals come from the DAX/Stoxx open which happens a little later at 12:00 PST. When I review the data pre-open, I like to see what the ES contract did at that time (between 12 and 2 PST)

Don't know if it is of interest, but it helps me to review news items and reports from the continent before the US market opens.

Good luck folks.
Steve
 
Quote from steve46:

To put things in perspective, my office did some research on both Trin and Vix some 5 years ago. I am retired now, but was managing a private fund at the time. We did the research because a colleague suggested that his approach (using Vix) was still viable, and we wanted to get to the bottom line. I knew a couple of folks in the business who believed that the Trin was not as useful as it used to be, because of changes in the makeup of the NYSE. We did the research and found no edge as regards using Trin for short term holds (less than 2 hours)..

For Gaps, we found that what mattered was how soon the market tested the midpoint between previous day's closing bar high, and next day's opening bar low. The problem with using indicators like Tick, Trin, Vix, right at the open, is that the market opens by rotation, and until all the rotations are completed, the display for these indicators is distorted. Also there is the issue of the makeup of the NYSE (Lowery's published comments relating to this a long while back)...now composed of a lot more "holding" companies. For that reason alone, it was thought that the Trin was of very little use.

For me, this is old news. As mentioned in my previous comments, there are several other ways to approach gaps, none of which require Vix, Trin, or Indices, and certainly nothing to do with the Banking Index..

Good luck in the markets tomorrow folks.

Steve
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The Buy took place at 12:30pm, that gave the market plenty of time to figure out what it wanted to do.
 

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The VXO (not VIX, VXO for those who know the difference) was dropping from its previous close, which signaled complacency, or lack of concern that it was "selling off" from the early morning highs.
 

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I find it absolutely absurd that I have had to "defend" my trade, not just with the usual naysayers, shrug, (that is what it is), but with every intra-day trader who thinks they know what they're doing as well. :)

I find the process ridiculous and only bothered to explain it so that the beginners might have a clue of where they should be looking for their setups.

You don't want something that tells you what is happening now, you want something that tells what has a high probability of happening in the future.

Think about it. :cool:

JJ
 
Quote from JimmyJam:

And the TRIN remained in its neutral zone, re-iterating the fact that this drop was meant to be bought.
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As mentioned (you highlighted the text), the makeup of the NYSE has changed, and for some time now, includes a significant number of holding companys. This is but one reason why the Trin is no longer as effective as it was.

Most professionals know this and are using other resources. Also no one I know uses "indices" or the banking sector to trade gaps.
As was said before, if you are banking coin, have at it.

I wouldn't suggest that a newbies waste time on this, especially since a simpler more effective method exists that requires only that you monitor price as it nears the midpoint of the gap.

Good luck everyone :p

By the way, I find it absurd that you are defending your trade as well. Instead of whining about it, you could take the opportunity to learn something new....

All the best

Steve
 
Quote from steve46:

As mentioned (you highlighted the text), the makeup of the By the way, I find it absurd that you are defending your trade as well. Instead of whining about it, you could take the opportunity to learn something new....

All the best

Steve
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Especially since it's against someone who has never made a live call himself (but I'm sure you'll be hitting it hard tomorrow, eh Stevie?), but purports to have all the trading wisdom in the world (just don't mention risk management or sophisticated use of leverage to'em) ... :)

Later expert,

Jimmy Jam
 
Jimmy you are right. We have all been a little hard on you and I think you need a break.

Tell you what princess, in honor of you and your method which from now on I will call the Jimmy Jam Simple Profitable Method or "JJSPM"..I will start my "call" for tomorrow's ES contract right now...

If the Vixo, the Trin, all the Indices, the banking sector, the Queen of England, Barbara Striesand, Lindsay Lohan and Paris Hilton all agree...I will be going long on the open....using the JJSPM....

Also I will be sure to use prudent Jimmy Jam style risk management and I will closely monitor the ever-changing maintenance margin requirements by keeping in touch with my broker on an open line throughout the day. Using these methods I intend to grow my account "exponentially"....until I rule the known financial universe sometime around 3pm EST.....

I cannot wait to bank all that coin using this method. I am hiring several accountants to deal with the tax implications as we speak.

Later princess

Steve :)
 
Steve,

I think we all get it, you disagree strongly with JJ. Why can't you just state that once or twice and move on? In my opinion you are just polluting this thread waging war on another user that no one cares to read.

Hats off to B1B2 and Apex on the live calls and the reasoning behind the calls. Excellent stuff.
 
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