ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Does anyone know how often (general idea or exact ratio is cool) the direction that the futures point in premarket ends up forecasting the entire day?
L
Lance Carson
Quote from mbusch:
Pretty impressive volume for a Friday. Options week is indeed bizarre.
As far back in the calendar, Option Expiration Friday its ALWAYS been - The Long Side is the RIGHT side. ( very surprised that nobody knew that statistical fact )
Long from 1519.50 + 8pts- LOL
I'm looking at the 3 min YM and ES chart as I read the various short calls on the morning of 18 May 2007. Goodness! It is like watching a horror movie and wanting to scream out, "No, don't go in that room!"
So far you have written the wisest words for the morning. Let's see what else I come across.
I realize that I am subject to being wrong at any time, but right now, I just can't see a case for getting short longer term. Granted, if the market were to turn here, we could get the good ole Bearish divergence, but I am looking for only little corrections and not full blown reversal. Nonetheless, I have put option protection in place and I am letting this one ride. 
Some useless statistics for those who care: While you are correct with regard to the last few years, 2 out of 3 of the last 24 expirations have been up, this statistic is usually only applicable in a bull market. Markets in an uptrend tend to have more up expirations, and markets in downtrends tend to have more down expirations. For 2000 and 2001 only 6 out of the 24 expirations were up. From 1/20/2000 to 5/18/2007 there have been 89 expirations and 44 have been up, 45 down.
the tip off is that it never challenged the open range in a true fashion today. 1520 was the floor, for a few minutes it looked like it would be able battle it in that area.
the general friday sentiment, almost seemed liked noone cared, even cnbc seemed off in their 'atmosphere', and was looking to the door for a early weekend.
whats going to be more annoying is that cnbc will constantly post how close we are to the record or over the record for both the dow and spooz now.
es is one of the easiest derivatives to trade.
the general friday sentiment, almost seemed liked noone cared, even cnbc seemed off in their 'atmosphere', and was looking to the door for a early weekend.
whats going to be more annoying is that cnbc will constantly post how close we are to the record or over the record for both the dow and spooz now.
es is one of the easiest derivatives to trade.
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