ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

Spectre2007 · May 17, 2007

you will see a lot of technical buying as the highs are taken out, especially as we approach the cash/spot index highs.

Spectre2007 · May 17, 2007

if your a mega fund and need to bail, its best to pump it up above the highs to create liquidity to sell into.

steve46 · May 17, 2007

Yes, I see it that way as well.

and you can bet there are a few folks out there with the cash to do it on an intraday basis.

If you are correct, a "selling tail" should be the result at the end of an up day.

btw, some of the larger firms have programs to do this and they are generically called "Excess" programs. They are designed to move market up to a specific landmark or target and then offload "excess" inventory.

Steve

apex82 · May 17, 2007

Profit 3 hit and filled 1520.50 +7.5pts

Now starting to dab short for a home run to the downside small size

Stop will be at 1423.50 if stopped out due to running stops will probably reenter tomorrow.

Spectre2007 · May 17, 2007

i wouldn't look to short until 1530 on the futures. no reason to short just yet.

apex82 · May 17, 2007

Quote from apex82:

Profit 3 hit and filled 1520.50 +7.5pts

Now starting to dab short for a home run to the downside small size

Stop will be at 1423.50 if stopped out due to running stops will probably reenter tomorrow.

Dont blindly sell into this late in the day.. I am but thats cuz I have some cushion and doing small size. Best to wait for some confirmation because if this holds it will be for a big move and plenty of profits can be made.

dmartin · May 17, 2007

APEX:

What would be your premise in shorting? Do you have a signal?

Thanks, DMartin

osorico · May 17, 2007

Quote from apex82:

Dont blindly sell into this late in the day.. I am but thats cuz I have some cushion and doing small size. Best to wait for some confirmation because if this holds it will be for a big move and plenty of profits can be made.

Same for YM. There is NOTHING suggesting a sustained down move from current YM levels(13540-50). Right now I can make an argument there will be strength into the AM. Of course, NOTHING doesn't mean good scalping opps won't present themselves.

Nice day,
good trading to all
Osorico

apex82 · May 17, 2007

Quote from dmartin:

APEX:

What would be your premise in shorting? Do you have a signal?

Thanks, DMartin

Its one of my favorite countertrend setups because the risk/reward is mimimum 1:10. But that means you are not going to get 90% odds.. I strive for 60% winners with this setup.

apex82 · May 17, 2007

Quote from osorico:

Same for YM. There is NOTHING suggesting a sustained down move from current YM levels(13540-50). Right now I can make an argument there will be strength into the AM. Of course, NOTHING doesn't mean good scalping opps won't present themselves.

Nice day,
good trading to all
Osorico

I agree I look crazy shorting this... no doubt about it. That is why I am going small size and know that the better short will probably be tomorrow. Markets look really bullish here but I have to follow my trading plan

A move below 1515-1516 would confirm the reversal